**Starship's measured 2026 pace so far anchors trader sentiment around 5–6 space-reaching launches.** Only Flights 12 (May, first V3 vehicle with Raptor 3 engines) and 13 (July) have reached space this year, delivering eight total successes across 13 flights to date while highlighting incremental gains in reusability and payload deployment like upgraded Starlink satellites. Regulatory approvals, tower-catch attempts, and vehicle production rates remain key swing factors for late-year cadence. Flight 14, targeted for late August or September as the first orbital mission with a potential ship catch, plus any FAA licensing or rapid-turnaround milestones could shift implied probabilities if testing accelerates beyond the current test-phase tempo.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоСкільки космічних апаратів SpaceX Starship досягне космосу в 2026 році?
Скільки космічних апаратів SpaceX Starship досягне космосу в 2026 році?
5–6 55%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
9-10 3.0%
$493,114 Обс.
$493,114 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
<5
33%
5–6
55%
7-8
6%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5–6 55%
<5 33%
7-8 6.5%
9-10 3.0%
$493,114 Обс.
$493,114 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
<5
$99,154 Обс.
33%
5–6
$113,820 Обс.
55%
7-8
$158,488 Обс.
6%
9-10
$61,502 Обс.
3%
11-12
$8,397 Обс.
3%
13-14
$9,172 Обс.
<1%
15-16
$30,073 Обс.
<1%
>16
$12,509 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Starship's measured 2026 pace so far anchors trader sentiment around 5–6 space-reaching launches.** Only Flights 12 (May, first V3 vehicle with Raptor 3 engines) and 13 (July) have reached space this year, delivering eight total successes across 13 flights to date while highlighting incremental gains in reusability and payload deployment like upgraded Starlink satellites. Regulatory approvals, tower-catch attempts, and vehicle production rates remain key swing factors for late-year cadence. Flight 14, targeted for late August or September as the first orbital mission with a potential ship catch, plus any FAA licensing or rapid-turnaround milestones could shift implied probabilities if testing accelerates beyond the current test-phase tempo.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$493,114Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Starship's measured 2026 pace so far anchors trader sentiment around 5–6 space-reaching launches.** Only Flights 12 (May, first V3 vehicle with Raptor 3 engines) and 13 (July) have reached space this year, delivering eight total successes across 13 flights to date while highlighting incremental gains in reusability and payload deployment like upgraded Starlink satellites. Regulatory approvals, tower-catch attempts, and vehicle production rates remain key swing factors for late-year cadence. Flight 14, targeted for late August or September as the first orbital mission with a potential ship catch, plus any FAA licensing or rapid-turnaround milestones could shift implied probabilities if testing accelerates beyond the current test-phase tempo.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$493,114Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Starship's measured 2026 pace so far anchors trader sentiment around 5–6 space-reaching launches.** Only Flights 12 (May, first V3 vehicle with Raptor 3 engines) and 13 (July) have reached space this year, delivering eight total successes across 13 flights to date while highlighting incremental gains in reusability and payload deployment like upgraded Starlink satellites. Regulatory approvals, tower-catch attempts, and vehicle production rates remain key swing factors for late-year cadence. Flight 14, targeted for late August or September as the first orbital mission with a potential ship catch, plus any FAA licensing or rapid-turnaround milestones could shift implied probabilities if testing accelerates beyond the current test-phase tempo.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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