A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and forecasts pointing to very strong conditions through year-end, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for an August global mean temperature anomaly above 1.29°C. Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show June 2026 at 1.09°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, continuing the multi-year warmth trend amid elevated ocean heat content. Differentiation among the closely matched leading bins hinges on the precise timing and magnitude of atmospheric coupling, potential short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or weather variability, and model consensus on peak monthly anomalies, with new ENSO updates and August observational releases from agencies like NOAA likely to refine these market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.25–1.29ºC 41%
>1.29ºC 40%
1.20–1.24ºC 21%
1.15–1.19ºC 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
5%
1.15–1.19ºC
12%
1.20–1.24ºC
21%
1.25–1.29ºC
35%
>1.29ºC
40%
1.25–1.29ºC 41%
>1.29ºC 40%
1.20–1.24ºC 21%
1.15–1.19ºC 12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$344 Обс.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$394 Обс.
5%
1.15–1.19ºC
$333 Обс.
12%
1.20–1.24ºC
$82 Обс.
21%
1.25–1.29ºC
$201 Обс.
35%
>1.29ºC
$225 Обс.
40%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and forecasts pointing to very strong conditions through year-end, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for an August global mean temperature anomaly above 1.29°C. Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show June 2026 at 1.09°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, continuing the multi-year warmth trend amid elevated ocean heat content. Differentiation among the closely matched leading bins hinges on the precise timing and magnitude of atmospheric coupling, potential short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or weather variability, and model consensus on peak monthly anomalies, with new ENSO updates and August observational releases from agencies like NOAA likely to refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,579Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and forecasts pointing to very strong conditions through year-end, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for an August global mean temperature anomaly above 1.29°C. Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show June 2026 at 1.09°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, continuing the multi-year warmth trend amid elevated ocean heat content. Differentiation among the closely matched leading bins hinges on the precise timing and magnitude of atmospheric coupling, potential short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or weather variability, and model consensus on peak monthly anomalies, with new ENSO updates and August observational releases from agencies like NOAA likely to refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$1,579Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C in mid-July 2026 and forecasts pointing to very strong conditions through year-end, serves as the dominant driver elevating trader expectations for an August global mean temperature anomaly above 1.29°C. Recent observational data from NOAA and Copernicus show June 2026 at 1.09°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, continuing the multi-year warmth trend amid elevated ocean heat content. Differentiation among the closely matched leading bins hinges on the precise timing and magnitude of atmospheric coupling, potential short-term cooling from volcanic aerosols or weather variability, and model consensus on peak monthly anomalies, with new ENSO updates and August observational releases from agencies like NOAA likely to refine these market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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