Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C and rising, introduce notable uncertainty for Seoul's August rainfall by altering the East Asian monsoon and steering patterns. Historical averages near 290–350 mm place central bins around typical outcomes, yet recent delayed monsoon onset and lingering late-July heavy rain events highlight potential for either suppressed totals or extreme additions from typhoons. Trader odds cluster near 34–44% across ranges, reflecting divergent model guidance on intensification timing and landfall probability. KMA and NOAA updates through early August will clarify whether atmospheric blocking or tropical cyclone activity shifts the distribution toward drier or wetter extremes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоPrecipitation in Seoul in August?
Precipitation in Seoul in August?
<150mm 41%
500mm+ 41%
150-200mm 34%
200-250mm 34%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
<150mm
41%
150-200mm
34%
200-250mm
34%
250-300mm
34%
300-350mm
34%
350-400mm
34%
400-500mm
34%
500mm+
41%
<150mm 41%
500mm+ 41%
150-200mm 34%
200-250mm 34%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
<150mm
$0 Обс.
41%
150-200mm
$0 Обс.
34%
200-250mm
$0 Обс.
34%
250-300mm
$0 Обс.
34%
300-350mm
$0 Обс.
34%
350-400mm
$0 Обс.
34%
400-500mm
$0 Обс.
34%
500mm+
$0 Обс.
41%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C and rising, introduce notable uncertainty for Seoul's August rainfall by altering the East Asian monsoon and steering patterns. Historical averages near 290–350 mm place central bins around typical outcomes, yet recent delayed monsoon onset and lingering late-July heavy rain events highlight potential for either suppressed totals or extreme additions from typhoons. Trader odds cluster near 34–44% across ranges, reflecting divergent model guidance on intensification timing and landfall probability. KMA and NOAA updates through early August will clarify whether atmospheric blocking or tropical cyclone activity shifts the distribution toward drier or wetter extremes.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C and rising, introduce notable uncertainty for Seoul's August rainfall by altering the East Asian monsoon and steering patterns. Historical averages near 290–350 mm place central bins around typical outcomes, yet recent delayed monsoon onset and lingering late-July heavy rain events highlight potential for either suppressed totals or extreme additions from typhoons. Trader odds cluster near 34–44% across ranges, reflecting divergent model guidance on intensification timing and landfall probability. KMA and NOAA updates through early August will clarify whether atmospheric blocking or tropical cyclone activity shifts the distribution toward drier or wetter extremes.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Seoul in August, 2026, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration's information for the region/branch of "Seoul".
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of August at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C and rising, introduce notable uncertainty for Seoul's August rainfall by altering the East Asian monsoon and steering patterns. Historical averages near 290–350 mm place central bins around typical outcomes, yet recent delayed monsoon onset and lingering late-July heavy rain events highlight potential for either suppressed totals or extreme additions from typhoons. Trader odds cluster near 34–44% across ranges, reflecting divergent model guidance on intensification timing and landfall probability. KMA and NOAA updates through early August will clarify whether atmospheric blocking or tropical cyclone activity shifts the distribution toward drier or wetter extremes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання