Traders assign overwhelming 95.5% implied probability to a 76-77°F low in Miami on August 4 because National Weather Service model consensus and recent observations point to overnight cooling driven by persistent easterly flow, sea-breeze moderation, and elevated subtropical moisture that limits radiative cooling. Historical August climatology at Miami International Airport shows typical lows near 78°F, yet the preceding night’s 74-75°F reading and similar atmospheric setup have shifted expectations slightly downward. Resolution hinges on the official midnight-to-midnight minimum reported by the airport station; only an unexpected dry slot or stronger southerly advection could realistically push the reading into the 78°F+ range, while further moisture or cloud cover would reinforce the current market consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Miami on August 4?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 4?
76-77°F 96%
74-75°F 4%
72-73°F 1.1%
70-71°F <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
96%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 96%
74-75°F 4%
72-73°F 1.1%
70-71°F <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 4, 2026
69°F or below
$547 Обс.
<1%
70-71°F
$529 Обс.
1%
72-73°F
$224 Обс.
1%
74-75°F
$319 Обс.
4%
76-77°F
$540 Обс.
96%
78-79°F
$2,572 Обс.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,322 Обс.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,218 Обс.
<1%
84-85°F
$1,040 Обс.
<1%
86-87°F
$427 Обс.
<1%
88°F or higher
$367 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign overwhelming 95.5% implied probability to a 76-77°F low in Miami on August 4 because National Weather Service model consensus and recent observations point to overnight cooling driven by persistent easterly flow, sea-breeze moderation, and elevated subtropical moisture that limits radiative cooling. Historical August climatology at Miami International Airport shows typical lows near 78°F, yet the preceding night’s 74-75°F reading and similar atmospheric setup have shifted expectations slightly downward. Resolution hinges on the official midnight-to-midnight minimum reported by the airport station; only an unexpected dry slot or stronger southerly advection could realistically push the reading into the 78°F+ range, while further moisture or cloud cover would reinforce the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,103Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign overwhelming 95.5% implied probability to a 76-77°F low in Miami on August 4 because National Weather Service model consensus and recent observations point to overnight cooling driven by persistent easterly flow, sea-breeze moderation, and elevated subtropical moisture that limits radiative cooling. Historical August climatology at Miami International Airport shows typical lows near 78°F, yet the preceding night’s 74-75°F reading and similar atmospheric setup have shifted expectations slightly downward. Resolution hinges on the official midnight-to-midnight minimum reported by the airport station; only an unexpected dry slot or stronger southerly advection could realistically push the reading into the 78°F+ range, while further moisture or cloud cover would reinforce the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$9,103Дата завершення
Aug 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign overwhelming 95.5% implied probability to a 76-77°F low in Miami on August 4 because National Weather Service model consensus and recent observations point to overnight cooling driven by persistent easterly flow, sea-breeze moderation, and elevated subtropical moisture that limits radiative cooling. Historical August climatology at Miami International Airport shows typical lows near 78°F, yet the preceding night’s 74-75°F reading and similar atmospheric setup have shifted expectations slightly downward. Resolution hinges on the official midnight-to-midnight minimum reported by the airport station; only an unexpected dry slot or stronger southerly advection could realistically push the reading into the 78°F+ range, while further moisture or cloud cover would reinforce the current market consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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