Ensemble forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF place London's August 6 maximum near 22–24 °C, with the tight clustering of market probabilities around these values reflecting model agreement on a modest high-pressure ridge delivering above-average but not extreme warmth. Key differentiating factors include daytime cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing: clearer skies and lighter winds favor the upper end of the range, while increased Atlantic moisture or a passing front would cap readings closer to 22 °C. Historical August climatology for London shows a mean daily maximum of roughly 21–22 °C, so current guidance implies a modest positive anomaly whose exact magnitude hinges on the next model runs and observational updates through August 5.