Recent forecast guidance from multiple meteorological models indicates a minimum temperature for Mexico City on August 30 most likely between 12–13°C, driven by the city's high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters above sea level, which produces cooler baseline conditions than its subtropical latitude would suggest. Persistent cloud cover and light rain associated with the wet season have limited nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows from dropping further, while light winds have reduced mixing with cooler air aloft. Historical August minima average near 12°C, providing climatological context for the narrow spread of market-implied probabilities across 10–14°C, which reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise timing and intensity of any clearing overnight. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations will refine the final recorded value.