**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) place the expected daytime maximum in Mexico City at 24–26 °C for August 30, 2026.** This range directly supports the market’s concentration on 25 °C (51.5 % implied probability) and 26 °C or higher (38.0 %). Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) and the ongoing rainy-season pattern keep temperatures moderate. Afternoon convection, driven by low-level moisture from the Pacific and weak low-pressure channels, produces widespread cloud cover, showers, and isolated thunderstorms that limit surface heating. SMN guidance explicitly notes east-southeast winds of 10–20 km/h with gusts to 30–50 km/h and a high probability of chubascos, conditions that favor a peak near 25 °C rather than sustained warming into the upper 20s. Hourly model guidance and real-time observations show temperatures climbing from morning lows of 12–14 °C to afternoon readings around 24–25 °C before convective cooling sets in, reinforcing the current market tilt. No anomalous heat or clear-sky subsidence is indicated, so the implied probabilities remain anchored to the consensus forecast range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 30?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 30?
25°C 52%
26°C or higher 36%
24°C 10%
23°C 3%
$5,373 Обс.
$5,373 Обс.
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
10%
25°C
52%
26°C or higher
36%
25°C 52%
26°C or higher 36%
24°C 10%
23°C 3%
$5,373 Обс.
$5,373 Обс.
Aug 30, 2026
16°C or below
$163 Обс.
<1%
17°C
$140 Обс.
<1%
18°C
$241 Обс.
<1%
19°C
$115 Обс.
<1%
20°C
$369 Обс.
<1%
21°C
$430 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$359 Обс.
1%
23°C
$374 Обс.
3%
24°C
$1,168 Обс.
10%
25°C
$1,032 Обс.
52%
26°C or higher
$984 Обс.
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) place the expected daytime maximum in Mexico City at 24–26 °C for August 30, 2026.** This range directly supports the market’s concentration on 25 °C (51.5 % implied probability) and 26 °C or higher (38.0 %).
Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) and the ongoing rainy-season pattern keep temperatures moderate. Afternoon convection, driven by low-level moisture from the Pacific and weak low-pressure channels, produces widespread cloud cover, showers, and isolated thunderstorms that limit surface heating. SMN guidance explicitly notes east-southeast winds of 10–20 km/h with gusts to 30–50 km/h and a high probability of chubascos, conditions that favor a peak near 25 °C rather than sustained warming into the upper 20s.
Hourly model guidance and real-time observations show temperatures climbing from morning lows of 12–14 °C to afternoon readings around 24–25 °C before convective cooling sets in, reinforcing the current market tilt. No anomalous heat or clear-sky subsidence is indicated, so the implied probabilities remain anchored to the consensus forecast range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 28, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$5,373Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 2:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) place the expected daytime maximum in Mexico City at 24–26 °C for August 30, 2026.** This range directly supports the market’s concentration on 25 °C (51.5 % implied probability) and 26 °C or higher (38.0 %).
Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) and the ongoing rainy-season pattern keep temperatures moderate. Afternoon convection, driven by low-level moisture from the Pacific and weak low-pressure channels, produces widespread cloud cover, showers, and isolated thunderstorms that limit surface heating. SMN guidance explicitly notes east-southeast winds of 10–20 km/h with gusts to 30–50 km/h and a high probability of chubascos, conditions that favor a peak near 25 °C rather than sustained warming into the upper 20s.
Hourly model guidance and real-time observations show temperatures climbing from morning lows of 12–14 °C to afternoon readings around 24–25 °C before convective cooling sets in, reinforcing the current market tilt. No anomalous heat or clear-sky subsidence is indicated, so the implied probabilities remain anchored to the consensus forecast range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$5,373Дата завершення
Aug 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 28, 2026, 2:56 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) place the expected daytime maximum in Mexico City at 24–26 °C for August 30, 2026.** This range directly supports the market’s concentration on 25 °C (51.5 % implied probability) and 26 °C or higher (38.0 %). Mexico City’s high elevation (~2,240 m) and the ongoing rainy-season pattern keep temperatures moderate. Afternoon convection, driven by low-level moisture from the Pacific and weak low-pressure channels, produces widespread cloud cover, showers, and isolated thunderstorms that limit surface heating. SMN guidance explicitly notes east-southeast winds of 10–20 km/h with gusts to 30–50 km/h and a high probability of chubascos, conditions that favor a peak near 25 °C rather than sustained warming into the upper 20s. Hourly model guidance and real-time observations show temperatures climbing from morning lows of 12–14 °C to afternoon readings around 24–25 °C before convective cooling sets in, reinforcing the current market tilt. No anomalous heat or clear-sky subsidence is indicated, so the implied probabilities remain anchored to the consensus forecast range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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