Recent short-range forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate a maximum near 12–13 °C for Wellington on 1 September, driven by a strengthening westerly flow, northwest winds of 10–13 m/s, and limited daytime heating under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible. This aligns with early-spring climatology (historical early-September highs averaging 13–14 °C) while reflecting the tail end of winter conditions and the ongoing development of El Niño, which favors variable temperatures but has not yet produced significant warmth in the region. Market-implied odds favor 14 °C as the mode because traders weigh model spread, potential forecast revisions from the next update cycle, and the narrow margin between 13 °C and 15 °C outcomes; cooler scenarios below 12 °C remain low-probability given current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
14°C 56%
15°C 18%
13°C 18%
12°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
4%
13°C
18%
14°C
56%
15°C
18%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
14°C 56%
15°C 18%
13°C 18%
12°C 4%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
8°C or below
$267 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$315 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$181 Обс.
1%
11°C
$510 Обс.
2%
12°C
$211 Обс.
4%
13°C
$397 Обс.
18%
14°C
$391 Обс.
56%
15°C
$283 Обс.
18%
16°C
$91 Обс.
1%
17°C
$112 Обс.
<1%
18°C or higher
$382 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate a maximum near 12–13 °C for Wellington on 1 September, driven by a strengthening westerly flow, northwest winds of 10–13 m/s, and limited daytime heating under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible. This aligns with early-spring climatology (historical early-September highs averaging 13–14 °C) while reflecting the tail end of winter conditions and the ongoing development of El Niño, which favors variable temperatures but has not yet produced significant warmth in the region. Market-implied odds favor 14 °C as the mode because traders weigh model spread, potential forecast revisions from the next update cycle, and the narrow margin between 13 °C and 15 °C outcomes; cooler scenarios below 12 °C remain low-probability given current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,140Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate a maximum near 12–13 °C for Wellington on 1 September, driven by a strengthening westerly flow, northwest winds of 10–13 m/s, and limited daytime heating under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible. This aligns with early-spring climatology (historical early-September highs averaging 13–14 °C) while reflecting the tail end of winter conditions and the ongoing development of El Niño, which favors variable temperatures but has not yet produced significant warmth in the region. Market-implied odds favor 14 °C as the mode because traders weigh model spread, potential forecast revisions from the next update cycle, and the narrow margin between 13 °C and 15 °C outcomes; cooler scenarios below 12 °C remain low-probability given current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,140Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from MetService-aligned sources and international models indicate a maximum near 12–13 °C for Wellington on 1 September, driven by a strengthening westerly flow, northwest winds of 10–13 m/s, and limited daytime heating under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible. This aligns with early-spring climatology (historical early-September highs averaging 13–14 °C) while reflecting the tail end of winter conditions and the ongoing development of El Niño, which favors variable temperatures but has not yet produced significant warmth in the region. Market-implied odds favor 14 °C as the mode because traders weigh model spread, potential forecast revisions from the next update cycle, and the narrow margin between 13 °C and 15 °C outcomes; cooler scenarios below 12 °C remain low-probability given current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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