Recent official and ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate predominantly clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and dry conditions over Beijing on August 31, supporting a daytime high near the 29–31 °C range consistent with late-summer climatology. The close 42 %–34 % market split between 30 °C and 31 °C reflects small but material differences among model runs in peak boundary-layer temperatures, urban heat-island intensity, and the precise timing of maximum insolation. With negligible precipitation risk and stable high-pressure dominance, resolution hinges on the official Beijing observation at the standard station; any slight increase in afternoon mixing or minor cloud development could shift the recorded maximum by 1 °C. Updated guidance from the National Meteorological Centre remains the key near-term catalyst.