Recent polls from late August show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round simulations, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s amid a fragmented field including Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Lula margins under 10 percent. Brazil’s polarized electorate, economic pressures, and institutional debates sustain the closeness, while free electoral broadcasts and the first presidential debate have produced limited movement. Further separation could emerge from September campaign events, economic indicators, or shifts in undecided and blank/null voters ahead of the October 4 first round.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 42%
Lula da Silva <5% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.0%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.6%
$364,825 ปริมาณ
$364,825 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
42%
Lula da Silva <5%
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
7%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 42%
Lula da Silva <5% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.0%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.6%
$364,825 ปริมาณ
$364,825 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$15,836 ปริมาณ
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$30,151 ปริมาณ
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$26,445 ปริมาณ
42%
Lula da Silva <5%
$30,536 ปริมาณ
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$10,745 ปริมาณ
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$9,025 ปริมาณ
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$14,734 ปริมาณ
7%
Renan Santos Victory
$211,721 ปริมาณ
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$4,889 ปริมาณ
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$4,913 ปริมาณ
<1%
Other
$5,830 ปริมาณ
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late August show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round simulations, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s amid a fragmented field including Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Lula margins under 10 percent. Brazil’s polarized electorate, economic pressures, and institutional debates sustain the closeness, while free electoral broadcasts and the first presidential debate have produced limited movement. Further separation could emerge from September campaign events, economic indicators, or shifts in undecided and blank/null voters ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$364,825วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late August show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round simulations, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s amid a fragmented field including Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Lula margins under 10 percent. Brazil’s polarized electorate, economic pressures, and institutional debates sustain the closeness, while free electoral broadcasts and the first presidential debate have produced limited movement. Further separation could emerge from September campaign events, economic indicators, or shifts in undecided and blank/null voters ahead of the October 4 first round.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$364,825วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from late August show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round simulations, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s amid a fragmented field including Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning keeps implied probabilities concentrated on Lula margins under 10 percent. Brazil’s polarized electorate, economic pressures, and institutional debates sustain the closeness, while free electoral broadcasts and the first presidential debate have produced limited movement. Further separation could emerge from September campaign events, economic indicators, or shifts in undecided and blank/null voters ahead of the October 4 first round.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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