Recent August 2026 polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) leading with 38–42% support in first-round scenarios, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) at 31–36%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and others in low single digits. The fragmented field and modest undecided share leave the leader well short of the 50%+ threshold required for outright victory on October 4. Campaigning began only in mid-August with no consolidation or surge evident, consistent with Brazil’s runoff system and historical patterns where first-round majorities are rare absent exceptional conditions. Traders assign just 9% implied probability to any candidate clearing the bar, reflecting these stable polling dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว9% โอกาส
$142,549 ปริมาณ
$142,549 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
9% โอกาส
$142,549 ปริมาณ
$142,549 ปริมาณ
Oct 3, 2026
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent August 2026 polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) leading with 38–42% support in first-round scenarios, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) at 31–36%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and others in low single digits. The fragmented field and modest undecided share leave the leader well short of the 50%+ threshold required for outright victory on October 4. Campaigning began only in mid-August with no consolidation or surge evident, consistent with Brazil’s runoff system and historical patterns where first-round majorities are rare absent exceptional conditions. Traders assign just 9% implied probability to any candidate clearing the bar, reflecting these stable polling dynamics.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$142,549วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent August 2026 polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) leading with 38–42% support in first-round scenarios, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) at 31–36%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and others in low single digits. The fragmented field and modest undecided share leave the leader well short of the 50%+ threshold required for outright victory on October 4. Campaigning began only in mid-August with no consolidation or surge evident, consistent with Brazil’s runoff system and historical patterns where first-round majorities are rare absent exceptional conditions. Traders assign just 9% implied probability to any candidate clearing the bar, reflecting these stable polling dynamics.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$142,549วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 18, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent August 2026 polls show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party) leading with 38–42% support in first-round scenarios, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) at 31–36%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and others in low single digits. The fragmented field and modest undecided share leave the leader well short of the 50%+ threshold required for outright victory on October 4. Campaigning began only in mid-August with no consolidation or surge evident, consistent with Brazil’s runoff system and historical patterns where first-round majorities are rare absent exceptional conditions. Traders assign just 9% implied probability to any candidate clearing the bar, reflecting these stable polling dynamics.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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