Mojtaba Khamenei’s continued public absence since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts drives market focus on his location. He sustained reported injuries to his face, arms, and legs in the February 2026 airstrike that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and other family members, and has issued only written statements while remaining unseen amid assassination risks tied to the U.S.-Israeli conflict. Regime sources and Israeli assessments place him in a secure Iranian facility, likely in Tehran, with no verified movement abroad despite fluctuating rumors of grave illness or death in August. Security concerns have overridden public appearances, including at the July funeral, while internal power dynamics with the IRGC and questions over his governing capacity add uncertainty. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could alter risk calculations for any potential departure.