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icon for Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?
Геополитика·Масло

Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?

icon for Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?
Геополитика·Масло

Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?

авг. 30

сент. 6

авг. 30

сент. 6

20-39 62%

40-59 18%

<20 14%

60-79 7%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

$13,861 Объем

20-39 62%

40-59 18%

<20 14%

60-79 7%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

$13,861 Объем

<20

$682 Объем

14%

20-39

$11,684 Объем

62%

40-59

$1,025 Объем

18%

60-79

$230 Объем

7%

80+

$240 Объем

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$13,861
Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$13,861
Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Связанные

icon for Пройдут ли 25-49 судов через Ормузский пролив в период с 24 по 30 августа?

Пройдут ли 25-49 судов через Ормузский пролив в период с 24 по 30 августа?

91%
Да
icon for Ограничения на проход в Ормузском проливе будут сняты к 31 августа?

Ограничения на проход в Ормузском проливе будут сняты к 31 августа?

<1%
Да
icon for Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?

98%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «20-39» с 62%, за ним следует «40-59» с 18%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 62¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 62%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $13.9K с момента запуска рынка Aug 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?», просмотри 5 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?» — «20-39» с 62%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 62%. Следующий ближайший исход — «40-59» с 18%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Сколько кораблей пройдет через Ормузский пролив за неделю до 31 августа?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.