Skip to main content
icon for Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 31 августа?

Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 31 августа?

icon for Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 31 августа?

Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 31 августа?

авг. 30

сент. 6

авг. 30

сент. 6

190-209 43%

170-189 33%

230+ 16%

210-229 8%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

$24,342 Объем

190-209 43%

170-189 33%

230+ 16%

210-229 8%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

$24,342 Объем

<170

$116 Объем

3%

170-189

$116 Объем

33%

190-209

$2,069 Объем

43%

210-229

$8,983 Объем

8%

230+

$13,058 Объем

16%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits centers on the uneven recovery in Suez routing amid persistent Houthi risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show AIS-visible crossings rising modestly to the 223–269 range in mid-to-late August, with containership, bulker, and tanker volumes each posting double-digit week-over-week gains as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO incrementally restore Asia-Europe services. This supports the market’s concentration around the 170–209 bands, reflecting a base rate still roughly 40% below pre-crisis norms. Key differentiating factors include war-risk premiums that have risen again (now case-by-case for Saudi-linked tonnage), a surge in “dark” (AIS-off) transits to evade targeting, and selective Houthi enforcement against Saudi-bound vessels that has cut Yanbu crude loadings by at least one-third since early August. Recent attacks, such as the 24 August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan and the 11 August incident on the Tihamah, reinforce carrier caution even as spot freight rates ease and more than 30% of certain Maersk Asia-Europe volumes shift back through the strait. The narrow gap between the 190–209 and 170–189 outcomes captures uncertainty over whether incremental service restorations will lift the weekly total above 210 or whether renewed risk aversion and dark-ship undercounting will cap it near recent lows. Resolution hinges on the balance between carrier risk assessments and any further Houthi actions in the immediate period.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$24,342
Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits centers on the uneven recovery in Suez routing amid persistent Houthi risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show AIS-visible crossings rising modestly to the 223–269 range in mid-to-late August, with containership, bulker, and tanker volumes each posting double-digit week-over-week gains as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO incrementally restore Asia-Europe services. This supports the market’s concentration around the 170–209 bands, reflecting a base rate still roughly 40% below pre-crisis norms. Key differentiating factors include war-risk premiums that have risen again (now case-by-case for Saudi-linked tonnage), a surge in “dark” (AIS-off) transits to evade targeting, and selective Houthi enforcement against Saudi-bound vessels that has cut Yanbu crude loadings by at least one-third since early August. Recent attacks, such as the 24 August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan and the 11 August incident on the Tihamah, reinforce carrier caution even as spot freight rates ease and more than 30% of certain Maersk Asia-Europe volumes shift back through the strait. The narrow gap between the 190–209 and 170–189 outcomes captures uncertainty over whether incremental service restorations will lift the weekly total above 210 or whether renewed risk aversion and dark-ship undercounting will cap it near recent lows. Resolution hinges on the balance between carrier risk assessments and any further Houthi actions in the immediate period.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$24,342
Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 31 августа?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 5 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «190-209» с 43%, за ним следует «170-189» с 33%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 43¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 43%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 31 августа?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $24.3K с момента запуска рынка Aug 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 31 августа?», просмотри 5 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 31 августа?» — «190-209» с 43%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 43%. Следующий ближайший исход — «170-189» с 33%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Сколько судов пройдет через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив 31 августа?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.