US naval operations, including carrier strike groups and over 20 warships in the Gulf of Oman enforcing a blockade and escorting commercial traffic, represent the dominant factor shaping sentiment for this market. Heightened tensions since February 2026 have driven sharp rises in oil price risk premiums, tanker charter rates, and marine insurance costs, with the Strait handling roughly one-fifth of global crude and LNG flows before disruptions. Recent mine-clearing efforts, facilitated transits under US protection, and attacks on vessels using southern routes underscore ongoing volatility, while talks involving Oman and Iran add uncertainty. Key catalysts ahead include potential carrier rotations, such as the USS Theodore Roosevelt deployment, FOMC-adjacent energy data releases, and any shifts in sanctions or de-escalation that could alter naval postures before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакие страны отправят военные корабли через Ормузский пролив до 31 декабря?
Какие страны отправят военные корабли через Ормузский пролив до 31 декабря?
$37,625 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
США
23%
Италия
14%
Великобритания
12%
Франция
10%
Австралия
10%
Нидерланды
9%
Германия
8%
Греция
26%
$37,625 Объем
США
$7,112 Объем
23%
Италия
$16 Объем
14%
Великобритания
$37 Объем
12%
Франция
$14,000 Объем
10%
Австралия
$0 Объем
10%
Нидерланды
$16,402 Объем
9%
Германия
$6 Объем
8%
Греция
$52 Объем
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations, including carrier strike groups and over 20 warships in the Gulf of Oman enforcing a blockade and escorting commercial traffic, represent the dominant factor shaping sentiment for this market. Heightened tensions since February 2026 have driven sharp rises in oil price risk premiums, tanker charter rates, and marine insurance costs, with the Strait handling roughly one-fifth of global crude and LNG flows before disruptions. Recent mine-clearing efforts, facilitated transits under US protection, and attacks on vessels using southern routes underscore ongoing volatility, while talks involving Oman and Iran add uncertainty. Key catalysts ahead include potential carrier rotations, such as the USS Theodore Roosevelt deployment, FOMC-adjacent energy data releases, and any shifts in sanctions or de-escalation that could alter naval postures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Объем
$37,625Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations, including carrier strike groups and over 20 warships in the Gulf of Oman enforcing a blockade and escorting commercial traffic, represent the dominant factor shaping sentiment for this market. Heightened tensions since February 2026 have driven sharp rises in oil price risk premiums, tanker charter rates, and marine insurance costs, with the Strait handling roughly one-fifth of global crude and LNG flows before disruptions. Recent mine-clearing efforts, facilitated transits under US protection, and attacks on vessels using southern routes underscore ongoing volatility, while talks involving Oman and Iran add uncertainty. Key catalysts ahead include potential carrier rotations, such as the USS Theodore Roosevelt deployment, FOMC-adjacent energy data releases, and any shifts in sanctions or de-escalation that could alter naval postures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Объем
$37,625Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...US naval operations, including carrier strike groups and over 20 warships in the Gulf of Oman enforcing a blockade and escorting commercial traffic, represent the dominant factor shaping sentiment for this market. Heightened tensions since February 2026 have driven sharp rises in oil price risk premiums, tanker charter rates, and marine insurance costs, with the Strait handling roughly one-fifth of global crude and LNG flows before disruptions. Recent mine-clearing efforts, facilitated transits under US protection, and attacks on vessels using southern routes underscore ongoing volatility, while talks involving Oman and Iran add uncertainty. Key catalysts ahead include potential carrier rotations, such as the USS Theodore Roosevelt deployment, FOMC-adjacent energy data releases, and any shifts in sanctions or de-escalation that could alter naval postures before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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