Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?
$1,776,376 Объем
20 июл. 2026 г.
20 июля
$306,687 Объем
100%
22 июля
$427,313 Объем
91%
25 июля
$251,145 Объем
79%
31 июля
$328,209 Объем
70%
15 августа
$92,067 Объем
51%
31 августа
$125,183 Объем
43%
$1,776,376 Объем
20 июля
$306,687 Объем
100%
22 июля
$427,313 Объем
91%
25 июля
$251,145 Объем
79%
31 июля
$328,209 Объем
70%
15 августа
$92,067 Объем
51%
31 августа
$125,183 Объем
43%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jul 22 2026
US military reports 17 total deaths in Iran conflict amid ongoing strikes
July 22 jumps to 92%8%
By July 22, the US military reported a total of 17 deaths in the conflict with Iran, with ongoing strikes continuing. Despite this, Israel had not engaged in direct qualifying military actions against Iran, supporting market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through July 22.
Jul 21 2026
US weighs 10-day ceasefire or full military campaign against Iran
July 22 rises to 94%3%
On July 21, 2026, reports indicated that US President Trump was considering accepting a 10-day ceasefire proposal or pursuing a broader military campaign with Israel against Iran. This uncertainty caused some market volatility but overall maintained optimism for a short-term ceasefire continuation, especially for the July 22 outcome.
Jul 21 2026
Iranian Interior Minister visits Pakistan to seek diplomatic revival
July 25 jumps to 81%6%
Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited Pakistan on July 21, 2026, to engage with mediators and seek renewed diplomatic efforts to salvage the ceasefire and negotiate a permanent solution. This diplomatic activity supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through mid to late July.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire to Iran to revive interim deal
July 22 jumps to 94%14%
On July 20, 2026, senior Iranian officials confirmed receiving a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at de-escalating the conflict and reviving the interim ceasefire agreement. This diplomatic development boosted market confidence significantly, reflected in sharp price increases for the July 20 and July 22 outcomes.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire to revive interim Iran-US deal
July 20 jumps to 93%6%
On July 20, mediators passed Iran a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving the interim deal signed in June. This diplomatic development reinforced market confidence in the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through July 20 and beyond, as it suggested efforts to de-escalate the broader conflict were ongoing.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day truce to revive US-Iran ceasefire deal
July 25 jumps to 84%14%
On July 20, 2026, mediators presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Regional mediators present 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran and US
July 20 jumps to 99%9%
On July 20, 2026, mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented a 10-day truce proposal aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal between Iran and the US, which also affected the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire would continue through near-term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators present Iran with 10-day truce proposal to revive interim ceasefire
July 20 rises to 96%3%
On July 20, 2026, regional mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near-term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US launches ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Iran retaliates against US bases
July 20 jumps to 99%7%
On July 19, 2026, the US conducted a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct qualifying military actions occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuation through July 20.
Jul 19 2026
US Central Command shares video of ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran
July 20 rises to 90%4%
On July 19, 2026, US Central Command released footage showing ongoing strikes against Iran, signaling sustained US military pressure. Iran refrained from direct attacks on Israel but continued missile barrages against US allies. Israel remained cautious, not directly engaging Iran, which supported market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire remained intact through near-term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US and Iran exchange strikes; Israel and Iran maintain ceasefire
July 20 jumps to 99%11%
On July 19, 2026, the US launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct military actions qualifying as ceasefire violations occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuing through July 20 and beyond.
Jul 18 2026
Israel refrains from strikes on Iran amid ongoing US-Iran conflict
July 18 jumps to 100%7%
Despite ongoing US strikes on Iran and Iranian threats, Israel did not engage in military actions against Iran on July 18, 2026, reinforcing market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through this date.
Jul 18 2026
Israel abstains from strikes on Iran as ceasefire frays between US and Tehran
July 20 surges to 99%48%
Despite the breakdown of a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, Israel did not participate in recent strikes on Iran, and Iran refrained from attacking Israel. This absence of qualifying military actions between Israel and Iran supported the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire holding through July 20.
Jul 18 2026
US sends additional warplanes to Middle East as conflict with Iran intensifies
July 22 surges to 92%42%
Reports on July 18 indicated the US was deploying more warplanes, including F-35 and F-16 jets, to the Middle East to counter Iranian missile and radar capabilities. This military buildup heightened regional tensions but did not constitute a direct Israel-Iran strike, maintaining market optimism for the ceasefire continuation through July 22.
Jul 17 2026
US launches strikes on Iranian military and surveillance sites amid rising tensions
July 20 surges to 92%41%
On July 17, the US conducted strikes on Iranian coastal surveillance, air defense sites, and military infrastructure, including the destruction of a port surveillance tower used to track commercial vessels. These actions escalated tensions but did not involve direct military action between Israel and Iran, supporting market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire remained intact for near-term dates.
Jul 17 2026
US launches multiple strikes on Iran amid escalating conflict
July 20 surges to 78%27%
On July 17, 2026, the US military conducted strikes on Iranian military targets, marking continued hostilities after the collapse of the ceasefire earlier in July. These strikes increased tensions but did not directly involve Israel in attacks on Iran, maintaining the fragile ceasefire status between Israel and Iran. The market reflected uncertainty but maintained moderate confidence in the ceasefire holding through short-term dates.
Jul 17 2026
US sends dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel amid rising tensions with Iran
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US deployed additional refueling aircraft to Israel, signaling preparedness for potential escalation but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred. This bolstered market confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remained intact as Israel refrained from strikes during this period.
Jul 17 2026
US deploys additional refueling aircraft to Israel amid regional tensions
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US sent dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel signaling preparedness for potential escalation, but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire continuation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
Recent escalations in the Strait of Hormuz have driven trader sentiment on the durability of any Israel-Iran ceasefire framework. Iranian forces struck multiple commercial vessels in early July, prompting U.S. Central Command strikes on Iranian military targets and President Trump’s July 8 declaration that the June Islamabad Memorandum truce had ended. Both sides have since exchanged further strikes, with U.S. operations expanding deeper into Iran and Iranian missile responses targeting regional U.S. positions. Israel has maintained high alert status and signaled readiness for independent action while conducting separate operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though it has not directly re-engaged Iranian territory in the latest exchanges. Negotiations on nuclear issues and a permanent settlement remain stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones in the immediate term that would restore the prior 60-day negotiation window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jul 22 2026
US military reports 17 total deaths in Iran conflict amid ongoing strikes
July 22 jumps to 92%8%
By July 22, the US military reported a total of 17 deaths in the conflict with Iran, with ongoing strikes continuing. Despite this, Israel had not engaged in direct qualifying military actions against Iran, supporting market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through July 22.
Jul 21 2026
US weighs 10-day ceasefire or full military campaign against Iran
July 22 rises to 94%3%
On July 21, 2026, reports indicated that US President Trump was considering accepting a 10-day ceasefire proposal or pursuing a broader military campaign with Israel against Iran. This uncertainty caused some market volatility but overall maintained optimism for a short-term ceasefire continuation, especially for the July 22 outcome.
Jul 21 2026
Iranian Interior Minister visits Pakistan to seek diplomatic revival
July 25 jumps to 81%6%
Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited Pakistan on July 21, 2026, to engage with mediators and seek renewed diplomatic efforts to salvage the ceasefire and negotiate a permanent solution. This diplomatic activity supported market confidence in the ceasefire holding through mid to late July.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire to Iran to revive interim deal
July 22 jumps to 94%14%
On July 20, 2026, senior Iranian officials confirmed receiving a proposal from mediators for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at de-escalating the conflict and reviving the interim ceasefire agreement. This diplomatic development boosted market confidence significantly, reflected in sharp price increases for the July 20 and July 22 outcomes.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day ceasefire to revive interim Iran-US deal
July 20 jumps to 93%6%
On July 20, mediators passed Iran a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving the interim deal signed in June. This diplomatic development reinforced market confidence in the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding through July 20 and beyond, as it suggested efforts to de-escalate the broader conflict were ongoing.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators propose 10-day truce to revive US-Iran ceasefire deal
July 25 jumps to 84%14%
On July 20, 2026, mediators presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Regional mediators present 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran and US
July 20 jumps to 99%9%
On July 20, 2026, mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented a 10-day truce proposal aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal between Iran and the US, which also affected the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire would continue through near-term dates.
Jul 20 2026
Mediators present Iran with 10-day truce proposal to revive interim ceasefire
July 20 rises to 96%3%
On July 20, 2026, regional mediators including Qatar, Egypt, and Pakistan presented Iran with a proposal for a 10-day truce aimed at reviving the interim ceasefire deal with the US, which included provisions affecting the broader conflict involving Israel. This diplomatic development reinforced market expectations that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran would continue through the near-term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US launches ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran; Iran retaliates against US bases
July 20 jumps to 99%7%
On July 19, 2026, the US conducted a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct qualifying military actions occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuation through July 20.
Jul 19 2026
US Central Command shares video of ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran
July 20 rises to 90%4%
On July 19, 2026, US Central Command released footage showing ongoing strikes against Iran, signaling sustained US military pressure. Iran refrained from direct attacks on Israel but continued missile barrages against US allies. Israel remained cautious, not directly engaging Iran, which supported market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire remained intact through near-term dates.
Jul 19 2026
US and Iran exchange strikes; Israel and Iran maintain ceasefire
July 20 jumps to 99%11%
On July 19, 2026, the US launched a ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran, while Iran retaliated by firing missiles at US bases and Gulf nations. However, no direct military actions qualifying as ceasefire violations occurred between Israel and Iran, sustaining market confidence in the ceasefire continuing through July 20 and beyond.
Jul 18 2026
Israel refrains from strikes on Iran amid ongoing US-Iran conflict
July 18 jumps to 100%7%
Despite ongoing US strikes on Iran and Iranian threats, Israel did not engage in military actions against Iran on July 18, 2026, reinforcing market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire would hold through this date.
Jul 18 2026
Israel abstains from strikes on Iran as ceasefire frays between US and Tehran
July 20 surges to 99%48%
Despite the breakdown of a fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, Israel did not participate in recent strikes on Iran, and Iran refrained from attacking Israel. This absence of qualifying military actions between Israel and Iran supported the market's rising confidence in the ceasefire holding through July 20.
Jul 18 2026
US sends additional warplanes to Middle East as conflict with Iran intensifies
July 22 surges to 92%42%
Reports on July 18 indicated the US was deploying more warplanes, including F-35 and F-16 jets, to the Middle East to counter Iranian missile and radar capabilities. This military buildup heightened regional tensions but did not constitute a direct Israel-Iran strike, maintaining market optimism for the ceasefire continuation through July 22.
Jul 17 2026
US launches strikes on Iranian military and surveillance sites amid rising tensions
July 20 surges to 92%41%
On July 17, the US conducted strikes on Iranian coastal surveillance, air defense sites, and military infrastructure, including the destruction of a port surveillance tower used to track commercial vessels. These actions escalated tensions but did not involve direct military action between Israel and Iran, supporting market confidence that the Israel-Iran ceasefire remained intact for near-term dates.
Jul 17 2026
US launches multiple strikes on Iran amid escalating conflict
July 20 surges to 78%27%
On July 17, 2026, the US military conducted strikes on Iranian military targets, marking continued hostilities after the collapse of the ceasefire earlier in July. These strikes increased tensions but did not directly involve Israel in attacks on Iran, maintaining the fragile ceasefire status between Israel and Iran. The market reflected uncertainty but maintained moderate confidence in the ceasefire holding through short-term dates.
Jul 17 2026
US sends dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel amid rising tensions with Iran
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US deployed additional refueling aircraft to Israel, signaling preparedness for potential escalation but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred. This bolstered market confidence that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remained intact as Israel refrained from strikes during this period.
Jul 17 2026
US deploys additional refueling aircraft to Israel amid regional tensions
July 18 surges to 96%46%
On July 17, 2026, the US sent dozens of refueling aircraft to Israel signaling preparedness for potential escalation, but no direct Israeli military action against Iran occurred, supporting market confidence in the ceasefire continuation.
«Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 7 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «20 июля» с 100%, за ним следует «18 июля» с 100%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 100¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1.8 million с момента запуска рынка Jul 16, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?», просмотри 7 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?» — «20 июля» с 100%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 100%. Следующий ближайший исход — «18 июля» с 100%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $1.8 million по “Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 100¢ для «20 июля» на рынке «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «20 июля» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 100%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 100¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 0¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?» запланирован к разрешению примерно Aug 31, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?» имеет активное сообщество из 10 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Израиль x Иран прекращение огня продолжается через...?». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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