**RZP (Religious Zionist Party) led by Bezalel Smotrich is advancing its own independent Knesset list following July 2026 central committee primaries, while Likud completed its separate August primaries and is finalizing its slate under Benjamin Netanyahu.** Recent polling shows RZP hovering near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold (often 2–4%), pressured by vote-splitting from new entrants like Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party targeting overlapping religious-nationalist voters. This has prompted coalition discussions about alliances to consolidate right-wing support, but these have focused on potential Otzma Yehudit mergers (rejected by Itamar Ben-Gvir) or limited talks involving Smotrich and figures like Moshe Feiglin rather than a Likud joint ticket. Smotrich has publicly indicated a preference for running independently, and neither party has announced or submitted a combined list ahead of the September submission window for the October 27 election. Trader consensus at 89% “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed merger or joint list agreement, the parties’ distinct internal processes, and RZP’s standalone positioning despite threshold risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 сент. 2026 г.
Да
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 сент. 2026 г.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**RZP (Religious Zionist Party) led by Bezalel Smotrich is advancing its own independent Knesset list following July 2026 central committee primaries, while Likud completed its separate August primaries and is finalizing its slate under Benjamin Netanyahu.**
Recent polling shows RZP hovering near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold (often 2–4%), pressured by vote-splitting from new entrants like Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party targeting overlapping religious-nationalist voters. This has prompted coalition discussions about alliances to consolidate right-wing support, but these have focused on potential Otzma Yehudit mergers (rejected by Itamar Ben-Gvir) or limited talks involving Smotrich and figures like Moshe Feiglin rather than a Likud joint ticket.
Smotrich has publicly indicated a preference for running independently, and neither party has announced or submitted a combined list ahead of the September submission window for the October 27 election. Trader consensus at 89% “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed merger or joint list agreement, the parties’ distinct internal processes, and RZP’s standalone positioning despite threshold risks.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Открытие рынка: Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Объем
$492Дата окончания
7 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**RZP (Religious Zionist Party) led by Bezalel Smotrich is advancing its own independent Knesset list following July 2026 central committee primaries, while Likud completed its separate August primaries and is finalizing its slate under Benjamin Netanyahu.**
Recent polling shows RZP hovering near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold (often 2–4%), pressured by vote-splitting from new entrants like Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party targeting overlapping religious-nationalist voters. This has prompted coalition discussions about alliances to consolidate right-wing support, but these have focused on potential Otzma Yehudit mergers (rejected by Itamar Ben-Gvir) or limited talks involving Smotrich and figures like Moshe Feiglin rather than a Likud joint ticket.
Smotrich has publicly indicated a preference for running independently, and neither party has announced or submitted a combined list ahead of the September submission window for the October 27 election. Trader consensus at 89% “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed merger or joint list agreement, the parties’ distinct internal processes, and RZP’s standalone positioning despite threshold risks.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Объем
$492Дата окончания
7 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**RZP (Religious Zionist Party) led by Bezalel Smotrich is advancing its own independent Knesset list following July 2026 central committee primaries, while Likud completed its separate August primaries and is finalizing its slate under Benjamin Netanyahu.** Recent polling shows RZP hovering near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold (often 2–4%), pressured by vote-splitting from new entrants like Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party targeting overlapping religious-nationalist voters. This has prompted coalition discussions about alliances to consolidate right-wing support, but these have focused on potential Otzma Yehudit mergers (rejected by Itamar Ben-Gvir) or limited talks involving Smotrich and figures like Moshe Feiglin rather than a Likud joint ticket. Smotrich has publicly indicated a preference for running independently, and neither party has announced or submitted a combined list ahead of the September submission window for the October 27 election. Trader consensus at 89% “No” reflects the absence of any confirmed merger or joint list agreement, the parties’ distinct internal processes, and RZP’s standalone positioning despite threshold risks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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