Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 2026 legislative election show persistent fragmentation on the right, with small parties like Noam often polling near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold while Otzma Yehudit maintains stronger but variable support. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged consolidation among right-wing lists to prevent wasted votes that could jeopardize a majority coalition, drawing on past technical alliances involving these factions. However, Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir has emphasized independence from other religious Zionist groups, citing distinct voter bases and policy priorities, while Noam has pursued rebranding and limited outreach without confirmed joint commitments. This creates balanced trader sentiment around the 50% mark, as threshold pressures and Netanyahu's influence compete against leaders' preferences for separate runs. Scheduled slate deadlines and final polling shifts on right-wing unity could alter the implied probability in either direction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 сент. 2026 г.
Да
0% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
7 сент. 2026 г.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 2026 legislative election show persistent fragmentation on the right, with small parties like Noam often polling near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold while Otzma Yehudit maintains stronger but variable support. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged consolidation among right-wing lists to prevent wasted votes that could jeopardize a majority coalition, drawing on past technical alliances involving these factions. However, Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir has emphasized independence from other religious Zionist groups, citing distinct voter bases and policy priorities, while Noam has pursued rebranding and limited outreach without confirmed joint commitments. This creates balanced trader sentiment around the 50% mark, as threshold pressures and Netanyahu's influence compete against leaders' preferences for separate runs. Scheduled slate deadlines and final polling shifts on right-wing unity could alter the implied probability in either direction.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Открытие рынка: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$30Дата окончания
7 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 2026 legislative election show persistent fragmentation on the right, with small parties like Noam often polling near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold while Otzma Yehudit maintains stronger but variable support. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged consolidation among right-wing lists to prevent wasted votes that could jeopardize a majority coalition, drawing on past technical alliances involving these factions. However, Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir has emphasized independence from other religious Zionist groups, citing distinct voter bases and policy priorities, while Noam has pursued rebranding and limited outreach without confirmed joint commitments. This creates balanced trader sentiment around the 50% mark, as threshold pressures and Netanyahu's influence compete against leaders' preferences for separate runs. Scheduled slate deadlines and final polling shifts on right-wing unity could alter the implied probability in either direction.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Объем
$30Дата окончания
7 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 2026 legislative election show persistent fragmentation on the right, with small parties like Noam often polling near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold while Otzma Yehudit maintains stronger but variable support. Prime Minister Netanyahu has urged consolidation among right-wing lists to prevent wasted votes that could jeopardize a majority coalition, drawing on past technical alliances involving these factions. However, Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir has emphasized independence from other religious Zionist groups, citing distinct voter bases and policy priorities, while Noam has pursued rebranding and limited outreach without confirmed joint commitments. This creates balanced trader sentiment around the 50% mark, as threshold pressures and Netanyahu's influence compete against leaders' preferences for separate runs. Scheduled slate deadlines and final polling shifts on right-wing unity could alter the implied probability in either direction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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