Russia's Supreme Court removed the Yabloko party from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 following a Rodina party lawsuit citing procedural and financing issues, a ruling upheld on appeal with further challenges facing limited prospects before the September 18–20 vote. This exclusion directly bars the liberal opposition party from competing in the proportional representation component, where a 5% threshold applies for seats. Yabloko has not cleared that threshold in national parliamentary elections since 1999 amid documented constraints on opposition activity, media access, and candidate registration. Trader consensus at 99.2% probability for failure reflects the decisive impact of the court decision. A successful final appeal leading to reinstatement before voting could theoretically shift the outcome, though such a reversal remains unlikely given the compressed timeline and prior pattern of administrative barriers.