Recent polling for Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows the pro-Netanyahu right-religious bloc and the main opposition bloc each projected near 50-55 seats, with Arab parties holding 11-14 seats and several smaller lists hovering near the 3.25% threshold. Neither side has consistently cleared the 61-seat majority needed for a coalition in most surveys, reflecting fragmented voter preferences and reluctance to partner with Arab lists. Traders assign 62% probability to no hung parliament outcome, reflecting expectations that surplus-vote agreements, threshold crossings by right-leaning parties, or post-election negotiations will allow one bloc to assemble a government, consistent with patterns in prior cycles where bloc discipline ultimately prevailed over deadlock.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIsraeli election results in a hung parliament?
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?
38% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
26 окт. 2026 г.
38% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
26 окт. 2026 г.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling for Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows the pro-Netanyahu right-religious bloc and the main opposition bloc each projected near 50-55 seats, with Arab parties holding 11-14 seats and several smaller lists hovering near the 3.25% threshold. Neither side has consistently cleared the 61-seat majority needed for a coalition in most surveys, reflecting fragmented voter preferences and reluctance to partner with Arab lists. Traders assign 62% probability to no hung parliament outcome, reflecting expectations that surplus-vote agreements, threshold crossings by right-leaning parties, or post-election negotiations will allow one bloc to assemble a government, consistent with patterns in prior cycles where bloc discipline ultimately prevailed over deadlock.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Объем
$5,876Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling for Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows the pro-Netanyahu right-religious bloc and the main opposition bloc each projected near 50-55 seats, with Arab parties holding 11-14 seats and several smaller lists hovering near the 3.25% threshold. Neither side has consistently cleared the 61-seat majority needed for a coalition in most surveys, reflecting fragmented voter preferences and reluctance to partner with Arab lists. Traders assign 62% probability to no hung parliament outcome, reflecting expectations that surplus-vote agreements, threshold crossings by right-leaning parties, or post-election negotiations will allow one bloc to assemble a government, consistent with patterns in prior cycles where bloc discipline ultimately prevailed over deadlock.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,876Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Israel's October 27 Knesset election shows the pro-Netanyahu right-religious bloc and the main opposition bloc each projected near 50-55 seats, with Arab parties holding 11-14 seats and several smaller lists hovering near the 3.25% threshold. Neither side has consistently cleared the 61-seat majority needed for a coalition in most surveys, reflecting fragmented voter preferences and reluctance to partner with Arab lists. Traders assign 62% probability to no hung parliament outcome, reflecting expectations that surplus-vote agreements, threshold crossings by right-leaning parties, or post-election negotiations will allow one bloc to assemble a government, consistent with patterns in prior cycles where bloc discipline ultimately prevailed over deadlock.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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