The Socialist primary's two-round electronic format, scheduled for 9-10 October with a potential runoff the following week, features a crowded field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS First Secretary Olivier Faure, and additional candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel. Recent candidate declarations through early September and the closed primary's reliance on party members plus fee-paying participants have sustained vote fragmentation, preventing any single contender from securing an outright majority. Trader consensus at 50.5% for no first-round winner reflects this competitive balance, where internal PS dynamics, alliance negotiations with Place Publique and GRS, and the absence of consolidating polls keep a runoff probable. Further endorsements, withdrawals, or late polling shifts within the next month could alter the outlook by clarifying support distribution ahead of the vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
49% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 окт. 2026 г.
Да
49% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
10 окт. 2026 г.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist primary's two-round electronic format, scheduled for 9-10 October with a potential runoff the following week, features a crowded field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS First Secretary Olivier Faure, and additional candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel. Recent candidate declarations through early September and the closed primary's reliance on party members plus fee-paying participants have sustained vote fragmentation, preventing any single contender from securing an outright majority. Trader consensus at 50.5% for no first-round winner reflects this competitive balance, where internal PS dynamics, alliance negotiations with Place Publique and GRS, and the absence of consolidating polls keep a runoff probable. Further endorsements, withdrawals, or late polling shifts within the next month could alter the outlook by clarifying support distribution ahead of the vote.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Открытие рынка: Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
10 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist primary's two-round electronic format, scheduled for 9-10 October with a potential runoff the following week, features a crowded field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS First Secretary Olivier Faure, and additional candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel. Recent candidate declarations through early September and the closed primary's reliance on party members plus fee-paying participants have sustained vote fragmentation, preventing any single contender from securing an outright majority. Trader consensus at 50.5% for no first-round winner reflects this competitive balance, where internal PS dynamics, alliance negotiations with Place Publique and GRS, and the absence of consolidating polls keep a runoff probable. Further endorsements, withdrawals, or late polling shifts within the next month could alter the outlook by clarifying support distribution ahead of the vote.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.
If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
10 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The Socialist primary's two-round electronic format, scheduled for 9-10 October with a potential runoff the following week, features a crowded field including frontrunner Raphaël Glucksmann of Place Publique, PS First Secretary Olivier Faure, and additional candidates such as Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel. Recent candidate declarations through early September and the closed primary's reliance on party members plus fee-paying participants have sustained vote fragmentation, preventing any single contender from securing an outright majority. Trader consensus at 50.5% for no first-round winner reflects this competitive balance, where internal PS dynamics, alliance negotiations with Place Publique and GRS, and the absence of consolidating polls keep a runoff probable. Further endorsements, withdrawals, or late polling shifts within the next month could alter the outlook by clarifying support distribution ahead of the vote.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы