Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Shas at 7–10 seats, consistent with roughly 5.8–8% of the national vote after the 3.25% threshold. This reflects erosion from the party's 11 seats in 2022, driven by voter shifts away from its hardline position on Haredi military exemptions amid ongoing coalition tensions. Shas finalized its slate on September 8 with Aryeh Deri at the top, promoting a reservist officer to sixth place and adding community representatives in an effort to retain Zionist-leaning Sephardi supporters. Multiple surveys from early September, including those by Midgam, Kantar, and Direct Polls, show consistent results around seven seats, with limited movement after party lists closed. Traders appear to weigh these figures heavily when pricing the sub-6% outcome as the plurality favorite, while assigning meaningful probability to an upside recovery above 9% if campaign adjustments or bloc dynamics shift support.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено<6% 48%
9%+ 32%
8-9% 25%
6-7% 25%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<6%
48%
6-7%
25%
7-8%
21%
8-9%
25%
9%+
32%
<6% 48%
9%+ 32%
8-9% 25%
6-7% 25%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<6%
$19 Объем
48%
6-7%
$0 Объем
25%
7-8%
$0 Объем
21%
8-9%
$0 Объем
25%
9%+
$0 Объем
32%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Shas at 7–10 seats, consistent with roughly 5.8–8% of the national vote after the 3.25% threshold. This reflects erosion from the party's 11 seats in 2022, driven by voter shifts away from its hardline position on Haredi military exemptions amid ongoing coalition tensions. Shas finalized its slate on September 8 with Aryeh Deri at the top, promoting a reservist officer to sixth place and adding community representatives in an effort to retain Zionist-leaning Sephardi supporters. Multiple surveys from early September, including those by Midgam, Kantar, and Direct Polls, show consistent results around seven seats, with limited movement after party lists closed. Traders appear to weigh these figures heavily when pricing the sub-6% outcome as the plurality favorite, while assigning meaningful probability to an upside recovery above 9% if campaign adjustments or bloc dynamics shift support.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$19Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Shas at 7–10 seats, consistent with roughly 5.8–8% of the national vote after the 3.25% threshold. This reflects erosion from the party's 11 seats in 2022, driven by voter shifts away from its hardline position on Haredi military exemptions amid ongoing coalition tensions. Shas finalized its slate on September 8 with Aryeh Deri at the top, promoting a reservist officer to sixth place and adding community representatives in an effort to retain Zionist-leaning Sephardi supporters. Multiple surveys from early September, including those by Midgam, Kantar, and Direct Polls, show consistent results around seven seats, with limited movement after party lists closed. Traders appear to weigh these figures heavily when pricing the sub-6% outcome as the plurality favorite, while assigning meaningful probability to an upside recovery above 9% if campaign adjustments or bloc dynamics shift support.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Объем
$19Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 4:17 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Israel's October 27 Knesset election place Shas at 7–10 seats, consistent with roughly 5.8–8% of the national vote after the 3.25% threshold. This reflects erosion from the party's 11 seats in 2022, driven by voter shifts away from its hardline position on Haredi military exemptions amid ongoing coalition tensions. Shas finalized its slate on September 8 with Aryeh Deri at the top, promoting a reservist officer to sixth place and adding community representatives in an effort to retain Zionist-leaning Sephardi supporters. Multiple surveys from early September, including those by Midgam, Kantar, and Direct Polls, show consistent results around seven seats, with limited movement after party lists closed. Traders appear to weigh these figures heavily when pricing the sub-6% outcome as the plurality favorite, while assigning meaningful probability to an upside recovery above 9% if campaign adjustments or bloc dynamics shift support.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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