Recent polling for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election shows the reestablished Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) projected at roughly 5-8 seats, equivalent to vote shares clustered around 5-7%. This range reflects uncertainty in Arab-sector turnout, the impact of the three-party reunification after prolonged negotiations that excluded Ra'am, and competition for the same voter base. Broader bloc dynamics, including fluctuating support for major Zionist lists and the 3.25% threshold, further compress probabilities across adjacent bins. Developments such as shifts in Arab voter mobilization, late campaign events, or changes in overall turnout could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено7,5%+ 29%
6,5–7,5% 26%
5,5–6,5 % 22%
4,5-5,5% 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<4,5%
20%
4,5-5,5%
21%
5,5–6,5 %
35%
6,5–7,5%
26%
7,5%+
29%
7,5%+ 29%
6,5–7,5% 26%
5,5–6,5 % 22%
4,5-5,5% 21%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 нояб. 2026 г.
<4,5%
$130 Объем
20%
4,5-5,5%
$20 Объем
21%
5,5–6,5 %
$110 Объем
35%
6,5–7,5%
$20 Объем
26%
7,5%+
$39 Объем
29%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election shows the reestablished Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) projected at roughly 5-8 seats, equivalent to vote shares clustered around 5-7%. This range reflects uncertainty in Arab-sector turnout, the impact of the three-party reunification after prolonged negotiations that excluded Ra'am, and competition for the same voter base. Broader bloc dynamics, including fluctuating support for major Zionist lists and the 3.25% threshold, further compress probabilities across adjacent bins. Developments such as shifts in Arab voter mobilization, late campaign events, or changes in overall turnout could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$320Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election shows the reestablished Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) projected at roughly 5-8 seats, equivalent to vote shares clustered around 5-7%. This range reflects uncertainty in Arab-sector turnout, the impact of the three-party reunification after prolonged negotiations that excluded Ra'am, and competition for the same voter base. Broader bloc dynamics, including fluctuating support for major Zionist lists and the 3.25% threshold, further compress probabilities across adjacent bins. Developments such as shifts in Arab voter mobilization, late campaign events, or changes in overall turnout could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by The Joint List party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by The Joint List's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether The Joint List passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If The Joint List contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If The Joint List merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Объем
$320Дата окончания
27 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 8, 2026, 2:38 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Israel's October 2026 Knesset election shows the reestablished Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) projected at roughly 5-8 seats, equivalent to vote shares clustered around 5-7%. This range reflects uncertainty in Arab-sector turnout, the impact of the three-party reunification after prolonged negotiations that excluded Ra'am, and competition for the same voter base. Broader bloc dynamics, including fluctuating support for major Zionist lists and the 3.25% threshold, further compress probabilities across adjacent bins. Developments such as shifts in Arab voter mobilization, late campaign events, or changes in overall turnout could widen the gap between the leading outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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