Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens clustered between roughly 16–21 percent and the SPD trailing near 12 percent. Under Berlin’s mixed-member proportional rules, the chamber starts at a statutory minimum of 130 seats but expands through overhang and leveling mandates when parties secure more direct constituency wins than their second-vote share justifies. With five parties near the five-percent threshold and uncertain first-versus-second vote splits across the 78 constituencies, the final seat total hinges on how many overhangs materialize and whether smaller lists clear the hurdle. These variables have kept projected sizes tightly bunched in trader assessments, with late shifts in constituency outcomes or turnout among marginal voters the most likely drivers of separation before election night.