Mainstream parties' longstanding firewall against cooperation with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains the dominant factor behind the 65.5% implied probability for "No." No other major party has signaled willingness to form coalitions or tolerate AfD-led governments at the state level, forcing the party to secure an absolute majority of seats on its own. In Saxony-Anhalt, where polls place AfD near or above 40% ahead of the September 6 election, smaller parties falling below the 5% threshold could deliver such a majority, yet recent developments show CDU, SPD, and others preparing procedural barriers and information restrictions to limit any AfD administration. Similar dynamics apply to upcoming votes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Berlin, where AfD leads but faces the same exclusionary consensus among competitors. This sustained political isolation, rather than polling alone, shapes trader expectations that AfD participation in any state government will be blocked through 2026.