Recent polls place the SPD between 12% and 15% ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting its weakened position as junior partner in the CDU-SPD governing coalition. The party has trailed the surging Left (19–22%), CDU (18–20%), AfD (17–19%), and Greens (16–17%) amid coalition fatigue, fallout from the January power outage, and the CDU’s candidate change. Polling volatility across firms and a narrow path to reclaiming prior support levels keep the 10–13% and 13–16% brackets closely matched in trader assessments. Late-campaign developments such as televised debates, turnout patterns among key voter groups, or further shifts in national sentiment could widen the range either downward or toward the upper end of current estimates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВыборы в Берлин: доля голосов СДПГ?
Выборы в Берлин: доля голосов СДПГ?
10-13% 40%
13–16% 34%
<10% 18.6%
16%+ 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<10%
19%
10-13%
40%
13–16%
34%
16%+
13%
10-13% 40%
13–16% 34%
<10% 18.6%
16%+ 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<10%
$514 Объем
19%
10-13%
$685 Объем
40%
13–16%
$460 Объем
34%
16%+
$914 Объем
13%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls place the SPD between 12% and 15% ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting its weakened position as junior partner in the CDU-SPD governing coalition. The party has trailed the surging Left (19–22%), CDU (18–20%), AfD (17–19%), and Greens (16–17%) amid coalition fatigue, fallout from the January power outage, and the CDU’s candidate change. Polling volatility across firms and a narrow path to reclaiming prior support levels keep the 10–13% and 13–16% brackets closely matched in trader assessments. Late-campaign developments such as televised debates, turnout patterns among key voter groups, or further shifts in national sentiment could widen the range either downward or toward the upper end of current estimates.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Объем
$2,573Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls place the SPD between 12% and 15% ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting its weakened position as junior partner in the CDU-SPD governing coalition. The party has trailed the surging Left (19–22%), CDU (18–20%), AfD (17–19%), and Greens (16–17%) amid coalition fatigue, fallout from the January power outage, and the CDU’s candidate change. Polling volatility across firms and a narrow path to reclaiming prior support levels keep the 10–13% and 13–16% brackets closely matched in trader assessments. Late-campaign developments such as televised debates, turnout patterns among key voter groups, or further shifts in national sentiment could widen the range either downward or toward the upper end of current estimates.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Объем
$2,573Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls place the SPD between 12% and 15% ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting its weakened position as junior partner in the CDU-SPD governing coalition. The party has trailed the surging Left (19–22%), CDU (18–20%), AfD (17–19%), and Greens (16–17%) amid coalition fatigue, fallout from the January power outage, and the CDU’s candidate change. Polling volatility across firms and a narrow path to reclaiming prior support levels keep the 10–13% and 13–16% brackets closely matched in trader assessments. Late-campaign developments such as televised debates, turnout patterns among key voter groups, or further shifts in national sentiment could widen the range either downward or toward the upper end of current estimates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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