Recent polling for the September 6, 2026 Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election shows the AfD holding steady between 41% and 43%, with Pollytix reporting 43%, INSA 42%, and Infratest dimap 41% in surveys from late July through early August. These figures reflect the party's sustained lead of roughly 17-20 points over the CDU, whose support has declined to the low-to-mid 20s. Smaller parties remain near or below the 5% threshold, though this primarily influences seat allocation rather than the AfD's raw vote share. Trader positioning for an outcome above 42% aligns with the most recent surveys clustering around that level and the absence of major late-campaign shifts that would alter the trajectory.