**Recent polling for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the SPD at 5–7%, keeping the outcome near the 6% line and producing a narrow trader edge for “Over.”** Multiple surveys from July and early August 2026 (INSA, Infratest dimap, Pollytix) show the party hovering around or just above 6%, down from 8.4% in 2021, amid a broader decline for the current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition partners. AfD leads at 41–43%, CDU trails at 22–24%, and smaller parties including the Greens, FDP, and BSW also sit close to the 5% electoral threshold. With roughly two weeks remaining, late shifts in turnout or tactical voting among voters seeking to block an AfD majority could still move the SPD result either side of 6%. The 56% implied probability for “Over” therefore reflects the tight polling range and residual uncertainty rather than a decisive trend.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПарламентские выборы в Саксонии-Ангальт: СДПГ больше/меньше 6%?
Парламентские выборы в Саксонии-Ангальт: СДПГ больше/меньше 6%?
Over
56% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 сент. 2026 г.
Over
56% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent polling for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the SPD at 5–7%, keeping the outcome near the 6% line and producing a narrow trader edge for “Over.”** Multiple surveys from July and early August 2026 (INSA, Infratest dimap, Pollytix) show the party hovering around or just above 6%, down from 8.4% in 2021, amid a broader decline for the current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition partners. AfD leads at 41–43%, CDU trails at 22–24%, and smaller parties including the Greens, FDP, and BSW also sit close to the 5% electoral threshold. With roughly two weeks remaining, late shifts in turnout or tactical voting among voters seeking to block an AfD majority could still move the SPD result either side of 6%. The 56% implied probability for “Over” therefore reflects the tight polling range and residual uncertainty rather than a decisive trend.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Объем
$256Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).**Recent polling for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the SPD at 5–7%, keeping the outcome near the 6% line and producing a narrow trader edge for “Over.”** Multiple surveys from July and early August 2026 (INSA, Infratest dimap, Pollytix) show the party hovering around or just above 6%, down from 8.4% in 2021, amid a broader decline for the current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition partners. AfD leads at 41–43%, CDU trails at 22–24%, and smaller parties including the Greens, FDP, and BSW also sit close to the 5% electoral threshold. With roughly two weeks remaining, late shifts in turnout or tactical voting among voters seeking to block an AfD majority could still move the SPD result either side of 6%. The 56% implied probability for “Over” therefore reflects the tight polling range and residual uncertainty rather than a decisive trend.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 6% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Объем
$256Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling for the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election places the SPD at 5–7%, keeping the outcome near the 6% line and producing a narrow trader edge for “Over.”** Multiple surveys from July and early August 2026 (INSA, Infratest dimap, Pollytix) show the party hovering around or just above 6%, down from 8.4% in 2021, amid a broader decline for the current CDU–SPD–FDP coalition partners. AfD leads at 41–43%, CDU trails at 22–24%, and smaller parties including the Greens, FDP, and BSW also sit close to the 5% electoral threshold. With roughly two weeks remaining, late shifts in turnout or tactical voting among voters seeking to block an AfD majority could still move the SPD result either side of 6%. The 56% implied probability for “Over” therefore reflects the tight polling range and residual uncertainty rather than a decisive trend.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы