Recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt place the CDU between 22% and 24%, reflecting a sustained decline from its 37.1% result in 2021 amid AfD gains to the low 40s. The incumbent CDU under Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze faces pressure from voter shifts toward the AfD, limited coalition options, and competition for center-right support, while smaller parties near the 5% threshold add uncertainty to overall seat math. Trader consensus slightly favoring an under-23% outcome aligns with the latest August surveys from Pollytix and INSA. Late-campaign developments, including turnout among CDU-leaning voters, final debate performances, or shifts in undecided support could narrow or widen the margin around this threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБольше
46% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 сент. 2026 г.
Больше
46% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
6 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt place the CDU between 22% and 24%, reflecting a sustained decline from its 37.1% result in 2021 amid AfD gains to the low 40s. The incumbent CDU under Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze faces pressure from voter shifts toward the AfD, limited coalition options, and competition for center-right support, while smaller parties near the 5% threshold add uncertainty to overall seat math. Trader consensus slightly favoring an under-23% outcome aligns with the latest August surveys from Pollytix and INSA. Late-campaign developments, including turnout among CDU-leaning voters, final debate performances, or shifts in undecided support could narrow or widen the margin around this threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 20, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Объем
$42Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt place the CDU between 22% and 24%, reflecting a sustained decline from its 37.1% result in 2021 amid AfD gains to the low 40s. The incumbent CDU under Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze faces pressure from voter shifts toward the AfD, limited coalition options, and competition for center-right support, while smaller parties near the 5% threshold add uncertainty to overall seat math. Trader consensus slightly favoring an under-23% outcome aligns with the latest August surveys from Pollytix and INSA. Late-campaign developments, including turnout among CDU-leaning voters, final debate performances, or shifts in undecided support could narrow or widen the margin around this threshold.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Объем
$42Дата окончания
6 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for the September 6, 2026, Landtagswahl in Sachsen-Anhalt place the CDU between 22% and 24%, reflecting a sustained decline from its 37.1% result in 2021 amid AfD gains to the low 40s. The incumbent CDU under Ministerpräsident Sven Schulze faces pressure from voter shifts toward the AfD, limited coalition options, and competition for center-right support, while smaller parties near the 5% threshold add uncertainty to overall seat math. Trader consensus slightly favoring an under-23% outcome aligns with the latest August surveys from Pollytix and INSA. Late-campaign developments, including turnout among CDU-leaning voters, final debate performances, or shifts in undecided support could narrow or widen the margin around this threshold.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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