Recent polls ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election place the CDU at 6–8 percent, typically around 7 percent, just above the 5 percent threshold required for parliamentary entry. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA show the party trailing far behind the leading AfD and SPD, squeezed by the polarized contest and weaker federal CDU positioning. Party figures, including state leaders and candidates, have publicly described an “existential struggle” and voiced fears of missing the hurdle for the first time in decades, citing the risk of a historic low. These figures underpin the 82.5 percent implied probability for the CDU finishing over 5 percent, reflecting trader assessment of the narrow but still probable margin above the barrier amid final-week campaign dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБольше
83% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Больше
83% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election place the CDU at 6–8 percent, typically around 7 percent, just above the 5 percent threshold required for parliamentary entry. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA show the party trailing far behind the leading AfD and SPD, squeezed by the polarized contest and weaker federal CDU positioning. Party figures, including state leaders and candidates, have publicly described an “existential struggle” and voiced fears of missing the hurdle for the first time in decades, citing the risk of a historic low. These figures underpin the 82.5 percent implied probability for the CDU finishing over 5 percent, reflecting trader assessment of the narrow but still probable margin above the barrier amid final-week campaign dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Объем
$8,990Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election place the CDU at 6–8 percent, typically around 7 percent, just above the 5 percent threshold required for parliamentary entry. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA show the party trailing far behind the leading AfD and SPD, squeezed by the polarized contest and weaker federal CDU positioning. Party figures, including state leaders and candidates, have publicly described an “existential struggle” and voiced fears of missing the hurdle for the first time in decades, citing the risk of a historic low. These figures underpin the 82.5 percent implied probability for the CDU finishing over 5 percent, reflecting trader assessment of the narrow but still probable margin above the barrier amid final-week campaign dynamics.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Объем
$8,990Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 10, 2026, 12:44 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern’s September 20 Landtag election place the CDU at 6–8 percent, typically around 7 percent, just above the 5 percent threshold required for parliamentary entry. Multiple surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA show the party trailing far behind the leading AfD and SPD, squeezed by the polarized contest and weaker federal CDU positioning. Party figures, including state leaders and candidates, have publicly described an “existential struggle” and voiced fears of missing the hurdle for the first time in decades, citing the risk of a historic low. These figures underpin the 82.5 percent implied probability for the CDU finishing over 5 percent, reflecting trader assessment of the narrow but still probable margin above the barrier amid final-week campaign dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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