Recent polls show the AfD leading the SPD by roughly three to five points in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the AfD at 36-38 percent and the SPD at 30-34 percent. This narrow gap, combined with the CDU’s projected collapse below 8 percent and the Linke holding around 10 percent, keeps the final margin between the top two parties highly uncertain and supports elevated trader probabilities on tight AfD victories or an outcome in which neither finishes first. The SPD’s modest recent gains, driven by incumbent Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and tactical voting signals, have narrowed what had been a larger AfD advantage earlier in the summer. With voting one week away and turnout patterns in eastern Germany historically volatile, final-week developments in voter mobilization and late shifts among smaller-party supporters remain the primary variables that could alter the realized margin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАдГ 2-5% 39%
АдГ 5-10% 32%
СДПГ 0-2% 11%
АдГ 0-2% 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
АдГ 10%+
3%
АдГ 5-10%
32%
АдГ 2-5%
39%
АдГ 0-2%
11%
СДПГ 0-2%
11%
СДПГ 2-5%
1%
СДПГ 5-10%
1%
СДПГ 10%+
1%
АдГ 2-5% 39%
АдГ 5-10% 32%
СДПГ 0-2% 11%
АдГ 0-2% 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
АдГ 10%+
$219 Объем
3%
АдГ 5-10%
$419 Объем
32%
АдГ 2-5%
$402 Объем
39%
АдГ 0-2%
$319 Объем
11%
СДПГ 0-2%
$335 Объем
11%
СДПГ 2-5%
$251 Объем
1%
СДПГ 5-10%
$174 Объем
1%
СДПГ 10%+
$152 Объем
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls show the AfD leading the SPD by roughly three to five points in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the AfD at 36-38 percent and the SPD at 30-34 percent. This narrow gap, combined with the CDU’s projected collapse below 8 percent and the Linke holding around 10 percent, keeps the final margin between the top two parties highly uncertain and supports elevated trader probabilities on tight AfD victories or an outcome in which neither finishes first. The SPD’s modest recent gains, driven by incumbent Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and tactical voting signals, have narrowed what had been a larger AfD advantage earlier in the summer. With voting one week away and turnout patterns in eastern Germany historically volatile, final-week developments in voter mobilization and late shifts among smaller-party supporters remain the primary variables that could alter the realized margin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Открытие рынка: Sep 11, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Объем
$2,271Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 10:58 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls show the AfD leading the SPD by roughly three to five points in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the AfD at 36-38 percent and the SPD at 30-34 percent. This narrow gap, combined with the CDU’s projected collapse below 8 percent and the Linke holding around 10 percent, keeps the final margin between the top two parties highly uncertain and supports elevated trader probabilities on tight AfD victories or an outcome in which neither finishes first. The SPD’s modest recent gains, driven by incumbent Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and tactical voting signals, have narrowed what had been a larger AfD advantage earlier in the summer. With voting one week away and turnout patterns in eastern Germany historically volatile, final-week developments in voter mobilization and late shifts among smaller-party supporters remain the primary variables that could alter the realized margin.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Объем
$2,271Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 11, 2026, 10:58 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show the AfD leading the SPD by roughly three to five points in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, with the AfD at 36-38 percent and the SPD at 30-34 percent. This narrow gap, combined with the CDU’s projected collapse below 8 percent and the Linke holding around 10 percent, keeps the final margin between the top two parties highly uncertain and supports elevated trader probabilities on tight AfD victories or an outcome in which neither finishes first. The SPD’s modest recent gains, driven by incumbent Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and tactical voting signals, have narrowed what had been a larger AfD advantage earlier in the summer. With voting one week away and turnout patterns in eastern Germany historically volatile, final-week developments in voter mobilization and late shifts among smaller-party supporters remain the primary variables that could alter the realized margin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы