Recent polling averages place the SPD at 27–29% support ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, a sharp decline from its 39.6% result in 2021 that delivered 34 seats. This positions the party for roughly 22–25 seats under current projections, consistent with trader consensus at 49.5% probability for that range. The AfD’s sustained lead near 36% has consolidated opposition votes in eastern Germany and complicated coalition arithmetic for the incumbent SPD–Left government led by Manuela Schwesig. Minor parties remain below the threshold in most surveys, reducing potential overhang or leveling effects that could alter seat totals. With the campaign entering its final weeks, further modest SPD erosion or AfD consolidation would reinforce the 22–25 seat band as the most probable outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено22-25 51%
26-29 18%
18-21 17%
30-33 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<18
5%
18-21
17%
22-25
55%
26-29
18%
30-33
12%
34+
1%
22-25 51%
26-29 18%
18-21 17%
30-33 6%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
20 сент. 2026 г.
<18
$602 Объем
5%
18-21
$251 Объем
17%
22-25
$1,022 Объем
55%
26-29
$251 Объем
18%
30-33
$95 Объем
12%
34+
$306 Объем
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling averages place the SPD at 27–29% support ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, a sharp decline from its 39.6% result in 2021 that delivered 34 seats. This positions the party for roughly 22–25 seats under current projections, consistent with trader consensus at 49.5% probability for that range. The AfD’s sustained lead near 36% has consolidated opposition votes in eastern Germany and complicated coalition arithmetic for the incumbent SPD–Left government led by Manuela Schwesig. Minor parties remain below the threshold in most surveys, reducing potential overhang or leveling effects that could alter seat totals. With the campaign entering its final weeks, further modest SPD erosion or AfD consolidation would reinforce the 22–25 seat band as the most probable outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Объем
$2,527Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling averages place the SPD at 27–29% support ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, a sharp decline from its 39.6% result in 2021 that delivered 34 seats. This positions the party for roughly 22–25 seats under current projections, consistent with trader consensus at 49.5% probability for that range. The AfD’s sustained lead near 36% has consolidated opposition votes in eastern Germany and complicated coalition arithmetic for the incumbent SPD–Left government led by Manuela Schwesig. Minor parties remain below the threshold in most surveys, reducing potential overhang or leveling effects that could alter seat totals. With the campaign entering its final weeks, further modest SPD erosion or AfD consolidation would reinforce the 22–25 seat band as the most probable outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the SPD party in the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Объем
$2,527Дата окончания
20 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 6, 2026, 9:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the SPD at 27–29% support ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, a sharp decline from its 39.6% result in 2021 that delivered 34 seats. This positions the party for roughly 22–25 seats under current projections, consistent with trader consensus at 49.5% probability for that range. The AfD’s sustained lead near 36% has consolidated opposition votes in eastern Germany and complicated coalition arithmetic for the incumbent SPD–Left government led by Manuela Schwesig. Minor parties remain below the threshold in most surveys, reducing potential overhang or leveling effects that could alter seat totals. With the campaign entering its final weeks, further modest SPD erosion or AfD consolidation would reinforce the 22–25 seat band as the most probable outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
34%
Выиграет ли АдГ большинство мест на парламентских выборах в Мекленбурге-Передней Померании в 2026 году?
84%
Да
Выиграет ли партия Линки третье по количеству мест число в земельном парламенте Мекленбурга-Передней Померании на выборах 2026 года?
63%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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