Persistent polling weakness for Liberalerna underpins the 88% trader consensus against the party winning Riksdag seats. Recent surveys, including an early August Novus poll for Svenska Dagbladet, place the party at 2.4%, with earlier June–July readings between 1.7% and 2.9%—all well below Sweden’s 4% national threshold. As the smallest partner in the Tidö coalition government, the Liberals face structural pressure from stronger bloc allies and a resurgent centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats. Internal strains, including leadership transition to Simona Mohamsson and regional defections over cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, have further eroded support ahead of the September 13 election. These trends have remained stable over the past two months, limiting any realistic path to parliamentary representation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПарламентские выборы в Швеции: либералы выигрывают места?
Парламентские выборы в Швеции: либералы выигрывают места?
Да
12% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
Да
12% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Persistent polling weakness for Liberalerna underpins the 88% trader consensus against the party winning Riksdag seats. Recent surveys, including an early August Novus poll for Svenska Dagbladet, place the party at 2.4%, with earlier June–July readings between 1.7% and 2.9%—all well below Sweden’s 4% national threshold. As the smallest partner in the Tidö coalition government, the Liberals face structural pressure from stronger bloc allies and a resurgent centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats. Internal strains, including leadership transition to Simona Mohamsson and regional defections over cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, have further eroded support ahead of the September 13 election. These trends have remained stable over the past two months, limiting any realistic path to parliamentary representation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ET
Объем
$694Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Persistent polling weakness for Liberalerna underpins the 88% trader consensus against the party winning Riksdag seats. Recent surveys, including an early August Novus poll for Svenska Dagbladet, place the party at 2.4%, with earlier June–July readings between 1.7% and 2.9%—all well below Sweden’s 4% national threshold. As the smallest partner in the Tidö coalition government, the Liberals face structural pressure from stronger bloc allies and a resurgent centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats. Internal strains, including leadership transition to Simona Mohamsson and regional defections over cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, have further eroded support ahead of the September 13 election. These trends have remained stable over the past two months, limiting any realistic path to parliamentary representation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Liberals (L) receive at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Liberals, officially registered as Liberalerna (L). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If L formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Liberals (L) in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Объем
$694Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:12 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent polling weakness for Liberalerna underpins the 88% trader consensus against the party winning Riksdag seats. Recent surveys, including an early August Novus poll for Svenska Dagbladet, place the party at 2.4%, with earlier June–July readings between 1.7% and 2.9%—all well below Sweden’s 4% national threshold. As the smallest partner in the Tidö coalition government, the Liberals face structural pressure from stronger bloc allies and a resurgent centre-left opposition led by the Social Democrats. Internal strains, including leadership transition to Simona Mohamsson and regional defections over cooperation with the Sweden Democrats, have further eroded support ahead of the September 13 election. These trends have remained stable over the past two months, limiting any realistic path to parliamentary representation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win 115-119 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
30%
Выиграет ли Шведская социал-демократическая партия (S) наибольшее количество мест на парламентских выборах в Швеции в 2026 году?
98%
Да
Парламентские выборы в Швеции: больше голосов у SD или M?
83%
SD
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы