Recent polling from Statistics Sweden and aggregated surveys through mid-2026 places the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) at 17–18.1 percent, hovering near the 17 percent threshold and reflecting modest erosion from its 19.1 percent result in 2022. As the leading party in the incumbent Tidö coalition government under Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Moderaterna faces headwinds from Sweden Democrats gains in voter preference and a broader right-bloc realignment ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Social Democratic support remains steady above 32 percent, while gender and regional voting patterns continue to influence Moderate totals. Traders price a slim probability edge for finishing above 17 percent based on this narrow polling band and limited time for major shifts before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOver
56% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
Over
56% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
13 сент. 2026 г.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling from Statistics Sweden and aggregated surveys through mid-2026 places the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) at 17–18.1 percent, hovering near the 17 percent threshold and reflecting modest erosion from its 19.1 percent result in 2022. As the leading party in the incumbent Tidö coalition government under Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Moderaterna faces headwinds from Sweden Democrats gains in voter preference and a broader right-bloc realignment ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Social Democratic support remains steady above 32 percent, while gender and regional voting patterns continue to influence Moderate totals. Traders price a slim probability edge for finishing above 17 percent based on this narrow polling band and limited time for major shifts before election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Объем
$61Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling from Statistics Sweden and aggregated surveys through mid-2026 places the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) at 17–18.1 percent, hovering near the 17 percent threshold and reflecting modest erosion from its 19.1 percent result in 2022. As the leading party in the incumbent Tidö coalition government under Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Moderaterna faces headwinds from Sweden Democrats gains in voter preference and a broader right-bloc realignment ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Social Democratic support remains steady above 32 percent, while gender and regional voting patterns continue to influence Moderate totals. Traders price a slim probability edge for finishing above 17 percent based on this narrow polling band and limited time for major shifts before election day.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Moderate Party (M) wins at least 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Moderate Party (M) wins less than 17% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Объем
$61Дата окончания
13 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from Statistics Sweden and aggregated surveys through mid-2026 places the Moderate Party (Moderaterna) at 17–18.1 percent, hovering near the 17 percent threshold and reflecting modest erosion from its 19.1 percent result in 2022. As the leading party in the incumbent Tidö coalition government under Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Moderaterna faces headwinds from Sweden Democrats gains in voter preference and a broader right-bloc realignment ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election. Social Democratic support remains steady above 32 percent, while gender and regional voting patterns continue to influence Moderate totals. Traders price a slim probability edge for finishing above 17 percent based on this narrow polling band and limited time for major shifts before election day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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