Latest ensemble forecasts from major models position a daily maximum near 14–15°C as the most probable outcome for Buenos Aires on August 25, driven by northeasterly advection of mild maritime air under building high pressure and increasing mid-level cloud cover. Recent runs show afternoon temperatures peaking around 13–15°C (roughly 55–59°F) with light winds and minimal mixing, consistent with late-winter climatology for the region. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities aligns closely with this narrow range, as higher or lower extremes would require unexpected shifts in steering flow or radiative cooling under clearer skies. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could refine these odds before resolution.