Congressional leaders have prioritized avoiding a lapse in appropriations before the September 30 funding deadline by advancing clean continuing resolutions in both chambers. The House passed a measure in July extending current funding levels through early December, and the Senate followed on August 8 with a version through December 11 that cleared by a 90-6 margin. These steps reflect deliberate efforts to sidestep disruptions ahead of the November midterms, with both parties signaling support for a stopgap and no major unresolved disputes blocking final enactment. The resulting trader consensus places an 83.5% implied probability on no shutdown occurring by October 1.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
16% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 окт. 2026 г.
Да
16% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 окт. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congressional leaders have prioritized avoiding a lapse in appropriations before the September 30 funding deadline by advancing clean continuing resolutions in both chambers. The House passed a measure in July extending current funding levels through early December, and the Senate followed on August 8 with a version through December 11 that cleared by a 90-6 margin. These steps reflect deliberate efforts to sidestep disruptions ahead of the November midterms, with both parties signaling support for a stopgap and no major unresolved disputes blocking final enactment. The resulting trader consensus places an 83.5% implied probability on no shutdown occurring by October 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Объем
$6,703Дата окончания
2 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Congressional leaders have prioritized avoiding a lapse in appropriations before the September 30 funding deadline by advancing clean continuing resolutions in both chambers. The House passed a measure in July extending current funding levels through early December, and the Senate followed on August 8 with a version through December 11 that cleared by a 90-6 margin. These steps reflect deliberate efforts to sidestep disruptions ahead of the November midterms, with both parties signaling support for a stopgap and no major unresolved disputes blocking final enactment. The resulting trader consensus places an 83.5% implied probability on no shutdown occurring by October 1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees.
A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown.
Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown.
The following will qualify as a shutdown:
- An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time
- An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency")
The following will not qualify as a shutdown:
- A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations
- Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$6,703Дата окончания
2 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 10, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Congressional leaders have prioritized avoiding a lapse in appropriations before the September 30 funding deadline by advancing clean continuing resolutions in both chambers. The House passed a measure in July extending current funding levels through early December, and the Senate followed on August 8 with a version through December 11 that cleared by a 90-6 margin. These steps reflect deliberate efforts to sidestep disruptions ahead of the November midterms, with both parties signaling support for a stopgap and no major unresolved disputes blocking final enactment. The resulting trader consensus places an 83.5% implied probability on no shutdown occurring by October 1.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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