Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability in the August 18 special general election runoff for California's 14th Congressional District because she finished first in the June 16 top-two primary by a wide margin of more than 20 points, securing roughly 38-43% of the vote compared with Melissa Hernandez's 17%. The heavily Democratic Bay Area seat, vacant after Eric Swalwell's April resignation, guarantees a Democratic winner regardless of the outcome. Wahab's primary performance, combined with her profile as a sitting state senator and repeat candidate for the district, has translated into strong trader consensus. Hernandez, a BART board president and former Dublin mayor, advanced as the second-place finisher and has outpaced Wahab in recent fundraising, yet trails substantially in primary vote share and faces an uphill path in the one-on-one contest. Minor candidates remain at negligible probabilities given the runoff format.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-14 Special Election Winner?
CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Aisha Wahab 86%
Melissa Hernandez 12.0%
Carin Elam <1%
Matt Ortega <1%
$27,177 Объем
$27,177 Объем
Aisha Wahab
86%
Melissa Hernandez
12%
Wendy Huang
<1%
Carin Elam
<1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
Aisha Wahab 86%
Melissa Hernandez 12.0%
Carin Elam <1%
Matt Ortega <1%
$27,177 Объем
$27,177 Объем
Aisha Wahab
86%
Melissa Hernandez
12%
Wendy Huang
<1%
Carin Elam
<1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Открытие рынка: Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability in the August 18 special general election runoff for California's 14th Congressional District because she finished first in the June 16 top-two primary by a wide margin of more than 20 points, securing roughly 38-43% of the vote compared with Melissa Hernandez's 17%. The heavily Democratic Bay Area seat, vacant after Eric Swalwell's April resignation, guarantees a Democratic winner regardless of the outcome. Wahab's primary performance, combined with her profile as a sitting state senator and repeat candidate for the district, has translated into strong trader consensus. Hernandez, a BART board president and former Dublin mayor, advanced as the second-place finisher and has outpaced Wahab in recent fundraising, yet trails substantially in primary vote share and faces an uphill path in the one-on-one contest. Minor candidates remain at negligible probabilities given the runoff format.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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