**Aisha Wahab holds a strong lead in the CA-14 general election market at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting her recent special election victory and resulting incumbency advantage ahead of the November 3 contest.** Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% in the August 18 special runoff to complete the unexpired term vacated by Eric Swalwell, who resigned in April amid allegations. This outcome followed Wahab’s first-place finishes in both the June 2 regular primary (38.3%) and June 16 special primary (42.8%), where Hernandez placed second in each. The East Bay district remains solidly Democratic, limiting Republican prospects and concentrating the contest between the two Democrats. Hernandez has noted the addition of new voters under updated district lines for the full term, but Wahab’s established name recognition, fundraising edge, and recent win create significant structural advantages. Trader pricing for other named candidates and “Other” remains lower, consistent with the top-two primary structure and Wahab’s positioning as the clear frontrunner. No major developments have shifted the race since the August special election results.