Democratic control of the House after the November 2026 midterms drives Hakeem Jeffries' 76.5% market share as the leading candidate for Speaker in the 120th Congress. Prediction markets currently price Democrats at roughly 70-86% odds of securing a majority, consistent with historical midterm patterns where the president's party often faces headwinds and recent polling showing voter focus on costs and economic conditions. Jeffries, as current minority leader, maintains strong caucus unity with no serious internal challengers, positioning him for election if Democrats flip the required seats. Mike Johnson's 8.6% share reflects limited Republican retention scenarios, while lower probabilities for Katherine Clark, Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, and Pete Aguilar align with their secondary roles in party leadership absent a shift in chamber control. Redistricting changes and special election results have modestly narrowed the Democratic edge without altering the overall consensus.