Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have encountered minimal organized opposition or polling threats in their primaries, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses. Most Class 2 Democratic seats feature established officeholders such as Jon Ossoff, Cory Booker, John Hickenlooper, Jeff Merkley, and Ben Ray Luján who filed early with little or no credible challengers qualifying for the ballot. Open Democratic seats, including Michigan and New Hampshire, have absorbed primary attention and resources instead. Recent cycles show Democratic Senate primaries rarely produce incumbent defeats compared with Republican contests, and no verified upsets or major scandals have emerged to alter that pattern through mid-August. Outcomes could shift only if late-breaking developments, such as strong progressive surges or unforeseen candidate withdrawals, materialize in any remaining state filing deadlines or contests.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСколько демократических сенаторов не выиграют праймериз?
Сколько демократических сенаторов не выиграют праймериз?
0 96%
1 3.6%
2 1.0%
3 <1%
$27,885 Объем
$27,885 Объем
0
96%
1
4%
2
1%
3
<1%
0 96%
1 3.6%
2 1.0%
3 <1%
$27,885 Объем
$27,885 Объем
0
$9,805 Объем
96%
1
$1,955 Объем
4%
2
$1,594 Объем
1%
3
$893 Объем
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have encountered minimal organized opposition or polling threats in their primaries, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses. Most Class 2 Democratic seats feature established officeholders such as Jon Ossoff, Cory Booker, John Hickenlooper, Jeff Merkley, and Ben Ray Luján who filed early with little or no credible challengers qualifying for the ballot. Open Democratic seats, including Michigan and New Hampshire, have absorbed primary attention and resources instead. Recent cycles show Democratic Senate primaries rarely produce incumbent defeats compared with Republican contests, and no verified upsets or major scandals have emerged to alter that pattern through mid-August. Outcomes could shift only if late-breaking developments, such as strong progressive surges or unforeseen candidate withdrawals, materialize in any remaining state filing deadlines or contests.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Объем
$27,885Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have encountered minimal organized opposition or polling threats in their primaries, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses. Most Class 2 Democratic seats feature established officeholders such as Jon Ossoff, Cory Booker, John Hickenlooper, Jeff Merkley, and Ben Ray Luján who filed early with little or no credible challengers qualifying for the ballot. Open Democratic seats, including Michigan and New Hampshire, have absorbed primary attention and resources instead. Recent cycles show Democratic Senate primaries rarely produce incumbent defeats compared with Republican contests, and no verified upsets or major scandals have emerged to alter that pattern through mid-August. Outcomes could shift only if late-breaking developments, such as strong progressive surges or unforeseen candidate withdrawals, materialize in any remaining state filing deadlines or contests.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Объем
$27,885Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 have encountered minimal organized opposition or polling threats in their primaries, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses. Most Class 2 Democratic seats feature established officeholders such as Jon Ossoff, Cory Booker, John Hickenlooper, Jeff Merkley, and Ben Ray Luján who filed early with little or no credible challengers qualifying for the ballot. Open Democratic seats, including Michigan and New Hampshire, have absorbed primary attention and resources instead. Recent cycles show Democratic Senate primaries rarely produce incumbent defeats compared with Republican contests, and no verified upsets or major scandals have emerged to alter that pattern through mid-August. Outcomes could shift only if late-breaking developments, such as strong progressive surges or unforeseen candidate withdrawals, materialize in any remaining state filing deadlines or contests.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Победят ли действующие республиканцы в Сенате не ровно в трёх праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
79%
Да
Потерпят ли поражение действующие республиканцы в Палате представителей на четырёх-шести праймериз в цикле 2026 года?
93%
Да
У Республиканской партии будет меньше 22 губернаторских постов после промежуточных выборов 2026 года?
28%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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