Recent Democratic calls for impeachment, fueled by President Trump's April 2026 statements during the Iran conflict, have elevated trader expectations. Over 70 House Democrats cited his social media posts as grounds for action or 25th Amendment invocation, marking a shift from earlier restraint. With the 2026 midterms approaching and models favoring a Democratic House majority, traders price a strong probability of articles passing the lower chamber before January 2029, consistent with historical patterns of opposition-led inquiries. Senate conviction remains a high bar under current partisan divisions, yet the House threshold alone drives the 63% implied probability for impeachment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Трамп подвергнут импичменту до истечения срока его полномочий?
Да
$89,702 Объем
$89,702 Объем
Да
$89,702 Объем
$89,702 Объем
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Democratic calls for impeachment, fueled by President Trump's April 2026 statements during the Iran conflict, have elevated trader expectations. Over 70 House Democrats cited his social media posts as grounds for action or 25th Amendment invocation, marking a shift from earlier restraint. With the 2026 midterms approaching and models favoring a Democratic House majority, traders price a strong probability of articles passing the lower chamber before January 2029, consistent with historical patterns of opposition-led inquiries. Senate conviction remains a high bar under current partisan divisions, yet the House threshold alone drives the 63% implied probability for impeachment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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