**Banco de la República’s policy rate stands at 12.0% following the June 75-basis-point hike and the July hold, with market-implied odds placing a September 30 decision to leave rates unchanged at 92%.** Persistent headline inflation near 6.0%—well above the 3% target—along with core readings around 6% and elevated 2026 expectations near 6.5% have kept policy restrictive, supported by an ex-ante real rate of roughly 6-7% and meaningful Colombian peso appreciation that has delivered additional effective tightening. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, align with this outlook by forecasting no change through year-end. A clearer path to cuts would require sustained inflation moderation toward the target range, while upside surprises in food prices, a strong El Niño event, or renewed fiscal pressures could still tilt the board toward another hike despite the current high-for-long stance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 92%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 5.2%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 3.8%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.0%
$27,141 Объем
$27,141 Объем
29 сент. 2026 г.
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
1%
Без изменений
92%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
5%
Без изменений 92%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 5.2%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 3.8%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.0%
$27,141 Объем
$27,141 Объем
29 сент. 2026 г.
Снижение более чем на 50 б.п.
$1,606 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$1,170 Объем
1%
Без изменений
$11,996 Объем
92%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$9,710 Объем
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$2,659 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banco de la República’s policy rate stands at 12.0% following the June 75-basis-point hike and the July hold, with market-implied odds placing a September 30 decision to leave rates unchanged at 92%.** Persistent headline inflation near 6.0%—well above the 3% target—along with core readings around 6% and elevated 2026 expectations near 6.5% have kept policy restrictive, supported by an ex-ante real rate of roughly 6-7% and meaningful Colombian peso appreciation that has delivered additional effective tightening. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, align with this outlook by forecasting no change through year-end. A clearer path to cuts would require sustained inflation moderation toward the target range, while upside surprises in food prices, a strong El Niño event, or renewed fiscal pressures could still tilt the board toward another hike despite the current high-for-long stance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Объем
$27,141Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banco de la República’s policy rate stands at 12.0% following the June 75-basis-point hike and the July hold, with market-implied odds placing a September 30 decision to leave rates unchanged at 92%.** Persistent headline inflation near 6.0%—well above the 3% target—along with core readings around 6% and elevated 2026 expectations near 6.5% have kept policy restrictive, supported by an ex-ante real rate of roughly 6-7% and meaningful Colombian peso appreciation that has delivered additional effective tightening. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, align with this outlook by forecasting no change through year-end. A clearer path to cuts would require sustained inflation moderation toward the target range, while upside surprises in food prices, a strong El Niño event, or renewed fiscal pressures could still tilt the board toward another hike despite the current high-for-long stance.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Объем
$27,141Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Banco de la República’s policy rate stands at 12.0% following the June 75-basis-point hike and the July hold, with market-implied odds placing a September 30 decision to leave rates unchanged at 92%.** Persistent headline inflation near 6.0%—well above the 3% target—along with core readings around 6% and elevated 2026 expectations near 6.5% have kept policy restrictive, supported by an ex-ante real rate of roughly 6-7% and meaningful Colombian peso appreciation that has delivered additional effective tightening. Recent analyst surveys, including Fedesarrollo’s August poll, align with this outlook by forecasting no change through year-end. A clearer path to cuts would require sustained inflation moderation toward the target range, while upside surprises in food prices, a strong El Niño event, or renewed fiscal pressures could still tilt the board toward another hike despite the current high-for-long stance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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