Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 55%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and a $40 trillion federal debt load have kept the term premium elevated, supporting higher long-term yields. Traders are monitoring next week’s CPI release and Fed communications for signals on whether policy will tighten further or remain on hold, with fiscal supply pressures and AI-related capital demand adding structural upward bias to yields through month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
5,10%
10%
5,05%
50%
5,00%
50%
4,97%
50%
4,94%
50%
4,91%
50%
4,88%
50%
4,85%
50%
4,82%
61%
$58 Объем
5,10%
$58 Объем
10%
5,05%
$0 Объем
50%
5,00%
$0 Объем
50%
4,97%
$0 Объем
50%
4,94%
$0 Объем
50%
4,91%
$0 Объем
50%
4,88%
$0 Объем
50%
4,85%
$0 Объем
50%
4,82%
$0 Объем
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 55%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and a $40 trillion federal debt load have kept the term premium elevated, supporting higher long-term yields. Traders are monitoring next week’s CPI release and Fed communications for signals on whether policy will tighten further or remain on hold, with fiscal supply pressures and AI-related capital demand adding structural upward bias to yields through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Объем
$58Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 55%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and a $40 trillion federal debt load have kept the term premium elevated, supporting higher long-term yields. Traders are monitoring next week’s CPI release and Fed communications for signals on whether policy will tighten further or remain on hold, with fiscal supply pressures and AI-related capital demand adding structural upward bias to yields through month-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Объем
$58Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Strong August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above expectations, drove the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.78% on September 4 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting above 55%. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions, and a $40 trillion federal debt load have kept the term premium elevated, supporting higher long-term yields. Traders are monitoring next week’s CPI release and Fed communications for signals on whether policy will tighten further or remain on hold, with fiscal supply pressures and AI-related capital demand adding structural upward bias to yields through month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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