Recent August 2026 data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a 162,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls has anchored trader expectations for the September release, scheduled for October 2. Stronger-than-anticipated job growth, rising labor force participation to 61.6%, and upward revisions to prior months have supported a narrow band of outcomes centered on 4.0–4.2%, with the 4.1% outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 35.5%. Persistent wage growth and mixed inflation signals keep the labor market outlook sensitive to incoming data, while monthly volatility in household survey figures sustains competition among nearby rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,1% 36%
4,2% 26%
4,0% 16%
4,3% 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 окт. 2026 г.
≤3,8%
5%
3,9%
5%
4,0%
16%
4,1%
36%
4,2%
26%
4,3%
11%
4,4%
6%
4,5%
7%
≥4,6%
4%
4,1% 36%
4,2% 26%
4,0% 16%
4,3% 11%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
2 окт. 2026 г.
≤3,8%
$589 Объем
5%
3,9%
$105 Объем
5%
4,0%
$62 Объем
16%
4,1%
$657 Объем
36%
4,2%
$84 Объем
26%
4,3%
$62 Объем
11%
4,4%
$176 Объем
6%
4,5%
$505 Объем
7%
≥4,6%
$505 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August 2026 data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a 162,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls has anchored trader expectations for the September release, scheduled for October 2. Stronger-than-anticipated job growth, rising labor force participation to 61.6%, and upward revisions to prior months have supported a narrow band of outcomes centered on 4.0–4.2%, with the 4.1% outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 35.5%. Persistent wage growth and mixed inflation signals keep the labor market outlook sensitive to incoming data, while monthly volatility in household survey figures sustains competition among nearby rates.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Объем
$2,746Дата окончания
2 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent August 2026 data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a 162,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls has anchored trader expectations for the September release, scheduled for October 2. Stronger-than-anticipated job growth, rising labor force participation to 61.6%, and upward revisions to prior months have supported a narrow band of outcomes centered on 4.0–4.2%, with the 4.1% outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 35.5%. Persistent wage growth and mixed inflation signals keep the labor market outlook sensitive to incoming data, while monthly volatility in household survey figures sustains competition among nearby rates.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$2,746Дата окончания
2 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 data showing the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% alongside a 162,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls has anchored trader expectations for the September release, scheduled for October 2. Stronger-than-anticipated job growth, rising labor force participation to 61.6%, and upward revisions to prior months have supported a narrow band of outcomes centered on 4.0–4.2%, with the 4.1% outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 35.5%. Persistent wage growth and mixed inflation signals keep the labor market outlook sensitive to incoming data, while monthly volatility in household survey figures sustains competition among nearby rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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