Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July 2026 naval blockade on Saudi Arabia continue to suppress commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with recent AIS and Kpler data showing daily averages of 26–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis 60–80 range. Elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value, selective targeting of Saudi-linked and tanker traffic, and carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope have kept volumes depressed, supporting the market’s 83% implied probability on outcomes below 30 ships by late September. Limited recovery in container services via Suez has not extended broadly to tankers, while dark transits and carve-outs for certain Chinese and Russian vessels provide only partial offsets. Any further escalation or signs of de-escalation ahead of month-end could shift these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСреднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце сентября?
Среднее количество судов, проходящих через Баб-эль-Мандебский пролив в конце сентября?
<25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 10.8%
35-39 6%
$14,530 Объем
$14,530 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
<25
47%
25-29
37%
30-34
11%
35-39
6%
40+
2%
<25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 10.8%
35-39 6%
$14,530 Объем
$14,530 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
<25
$2,577 Объем
47%
25-29
$5,403 Объем
37%
30-34
$3,126 Объем
11%
35-39
$1,621 Объем
6%
40+
$1,804 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July 2026 naval blockade on Saudi Arabia continue to suppress commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with recent AIS and Kpler data showing daily averages of 26–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis 60–80 range. Elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value, selective targeting of Saudi-linked and tanker traffic, and carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope have kept volumes depressed, supporting the market’s 83% implied probability on outcomes below 30 ships by late September. Limited recovery in container services via Suez has not extended broadly to tankers, while dark transits and carve-outs for certain Chinese and Russian vessels provide only partial offsets. Any further escalation or signs of de-escalation ahead of month-end could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Открытие рынка: Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Объем
$14,530Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July 2026 naval blockade on Saudi Arabia continue to suppress commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with recent AIS and Kpler data showing daily averages of 26–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis 60–80 range. Elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value, selective targeting of Saudi-linked and tanker traffic, and carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope have kept volumes depressed, supporting the market’s 83% implied probability on outcomes below 30 ships by late September. Limited recovery in container services via Suez has not extended broadly to tankers, while dark transits and carve-outs for certain Chinese and Russian vessels provide only partial offsets. Any further escalation or signs of de-escalation ahead of month-end could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Объем
$14,530Дата окончания
30 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
IMF PortWatchКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing Houthi attacks and the July 2026 naval blockade on Saudi Arabia continue to suppress commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with recent AIS and Kpler data showing daily averages of 26–40 vessels, well below the pre-crisis 60–80 range. Elevated war-risk premiums exceeding 1% of hull value, selective targeting of Saudi-linked and tanker traffic, and carrier rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope have kept volumes depressed, supporting the market’s 83% implied probability on outcomes below 30 ships by late September. Limited recovery in container services via Suez has not extended broadly to tankers, while dark transits and carve-outs for certain Chinese and Russian vessels provide only partial offsets. Any further escalation or signs of de-escalation ahead of month-end could shift these probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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