Recent developments center on the fragile June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, which launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz navigation, nuclear inspections and limits, sanctions relief, and a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism. High-level sessions in Switzerland and Qatar produced working groups and communication channels but stalled over implementation disputes, ceasefire violations, and differing accounts of nuclear commitments. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue shuttling messages as the original deadline passed in mid-August without a final accord. Key variables include Iran's demands on regional issues, US insistence on verifiable nuclear steps, and potential extensions or new rounds in neutral venues before December 31. Trader assessments reflect ongoing but uncertain diplomatic momentum amid these unresolved frictions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$304,963 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
43%
Jared Kushner
42%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
42%
Abbas Araghchi
34%
Ishaq Dar
31%
J.D. Vance
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Nick Stewart
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Rafael Grossi
17%
Donald Trump
14%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
14%
Marco Rubio
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
11%
Pete Hegseth
9%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$304,963 Wol.
Steve Witkoff
$17,730 Wol.
43%
Jared Kushner
$14,387 Wol.
42%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$11,943 Wol.
42%
Abbas Araghchi
$7,573 Wol.
34%
Ishaq Dar
$17,540 Wol.
31%
J.D. Vance
$20,976 Wol.
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,478 Wol.
24%
Nick Stewart
$11,128 Wol.
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,946 Wol.
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$29,145 Wol.
17%
Rafael Grossi
$18,288 Wol.
17%
Donald Trump
$7,456 Wol.
14%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$28,743 Wol.
14%
Marco Rubio
$13,311 Wol.
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$19,279 Wol.
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
$7,856 Wol.
11%
Pete Hegseth
$15,413 Wol.
9%
Esmail Qaani
$10,890 Wol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,880 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the fragile June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, which launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz navigation, nuclear inspections and limits, sanctions relief, and a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism. High-level sessions in Switzerland and Qatar produced working groups and communication channels but stalled over implementation disputes, ceasefire violations, and differing accounts of nuclear commitments. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue shuttling messages as the original deadline passed in mid-August without a final accord. Key variables include Iran's demands on regional issues, US insistence on verifiable nuclear steps, and potential extensions or new rounds in neutral venues before December 31. Trader assessments reflect ongoing but uncertain diplomatic momentum amid these unresolved frictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$304,963Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the fragile June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, which launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz navigation, nuclear inspections and limits, sanctions relief, and a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism. High-level sessions in Switzerland and Qatar produced working groups and communication channels but stalled over implementation disputes, ceasefire violations, and differing accounts of nuclear commitments. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue shuttling messages as the original deadline passed in mid-August without a final accord. Key variables include Iran's demands on regional issues, US insistence on verifiable nuclear steps, and potential extensions or new rounds in neutral venues before December 31. Trader assessments reflect ongoing but uncertain diplomatic momentum amid these unresolved frictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$304,963Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments center on the fragile June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, which launched a 60-day window for technical talks on the Strait of Hormuz navigation, nuclear inspections and limits, sanctions relief, and a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism. High-level sessions in Switzerland and Qatar produced working groups and communication channels but stalled over implementation disputes, ceasefire violations, and differing accounts of nuclear commitments. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan continue shuttling messages as the original deadline passed in mid-August without a final accord. Key variables include Iran's demands on regional issues, US insistence on verifiable nuclear steps, and potential extensions or new rounds in neutral venues before December 31. Trader assessments reflect ongoing but uncertain diplomatic momentum amid these unresolved frictions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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