President Trump's March and April 2026 remarks and social media posts jokingly referencing the "Strait of Trump" during tensions over the waterway generated brief attention but produced no formal executive order, legislative proposal, or international coordination. The Strait of Hormuz lies in international waters between Iran, Oman, and the UAE, placing it outside the scope of unilateral U.S. geographic renaming authority that applies to domestic features such as the Gulf of America. Traders assign a 95.9 percent probability to "No" by year-end because no mechanism exists for a binding name change without broad diplomatic acceptance, and subsequent months have shown no follow-through amid other policy priorities. A late breakthrough would require an unanticipated shift in control of the strait or a symbolic federal designation with negligible international effect.