US-Iran tensions remain elevated following 2026 airstrikes and a fragile June ceasefire, yet diplomatic channels through Oman, Qatar, and intermediaries have produced ongoing talks on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and de-escalation as of mid-August. President Trump has described US actions as “low-key” while emphasizing economic pressure, and Iranian officials signal willingness to negotiate indirectly without conceding on core missile or nuclear issues. These developments, combined with the short remaining timeline before 2027 and absence of announced ground operations or mobilization for regime-change invasion, underpin trader consensus against a US invasion. Scheduled diplomatic milestones and risks of broader regional escalation further support the current implied probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCzy USA dokonają inwazji na Iran przed 2027 rokiem?
Czy USA dokonają inwazji na Iran przed 2027 rokiem?
Tak
17% szansa
$58,592,093 Wol.
$58,592,093 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
17% szansa
$58,592,093 Wol.
$58,592,093 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US-Iran tensions remain elevated following 2026 airstrikes and a fragile June ceasefire, yet diplomatic channels through Oman, Qatar, and intermediaries have produced ongoing talks on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and de-escalation as of mid-August. President Trump has described US actions as “low-key” while emphasizing economic pressure, and Iranian officials signal willingness to negotiate indirectly without conceding on core missile or nuclear issues. These developments, combined with the short remaining timeline before 2027 and absence of announced ground operations or mobilization for regime-change invasion, underpin trader consensus against a US invasion. Scheduled diplomatic milestones and risks of broader regional escalation further support the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$58,592,093Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.US-Iran tensions remain elevated following 2026 airstrikes and a fragile June ceasefire, yet diplomatic channels through Oman, Qatar, and intermediaries have produced ongoing talks on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and de-escalation as of mid-August. President Trump has described US actions as “low-key” while emphasizing economic pressure, and Iranian officials signal willingness to negotiate indirectly without conceding on core missile or nuclear issues. These developments, combined with the short remaining timeline before 2027 and absence of announced ground operations or mobilization for regime-change invasion, underpin trader consensus against a US invasion. Scheduled diplomatic milestones and risks of broader regional escalation further support the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Wolumen
$58,592,093Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions remain elevated following 2026 airstrikes and a fragile June ceasefire, yet diplomatic channels through Oman, Qatar, and intermediaries have produced ongoing talks on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and de-escalation as of mid-August. President Trump has described US actions as “low-key” while emphasizing economic pressure, and Iranian officials signal willingness to negotiate indirectly without conceding on core missile or nuclear issues. These developments, combined with the short remaining timeline before 2027 and absence of announced ground operations or mobilization for regime-change invasion, underpin trader consensus against a US invasion. Scheduled diplomatic milestones and risks of broader regional escalation further support the current implied probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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