Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the islands' status. Kharg Island alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi sit at key chokepoints affecting roughly 20% of global oil transit. Recent developments include U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and an oil tanker near Kharg in July 2026, following earlier March raids and a short-lived June memorandum that collapsed amid renewed attacks. Brent crude has traded with a persistent geopolitical premium, recently near $88 per barrel after peaking above $120, reflecting supply disruption risks and higher tanker insurance costs. No territorial seizures have occurred despite discussions of blockades or occupations, leaving outcomes dependent on ceasefire talks or further escalation before any resolution date.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
3%
September 30
12%
$2,111 Wol.
August 31
$2,090 Wol.
3%
September 30
$21 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the islands' status. Kharg Island alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi sit at key chokepoints affecting roughly 20% of global oil transit. Recent developments include U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and an oil tanker near Kharg in July 2026, following earlier March raids and a short-lived June memorandum that collapsed amid renewed attacks. Brent crude has traded with a persistent geopolitical premium, recently near $88 per barrel after peaking above $120, reflecting supply disruption risks and higher tanker insurance costs. No territorial seizures have occurred despite discussions of blockades or occupations, leaving outcomes dependent on ceasefire talks or further escalation before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,111Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the islands' status. Kharg Island alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi sit at key chokepoints affecting roughly 20% of global oil transit. Recent developments include U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and an oil tanker near Kharg in July 2026, following earlier March raids and a short-lived June memorandum that collapsed amid renewed attacks. Brent crude has traded with a persistent geopolitical premium, recently near $88 per barrel after peaking above $120, reflecting supply disruption risks and higher tanker insurance costs. No territorial seizures have occurred despite discussions of blockades or occupations, leaving outcomes dependent on ceasefire talks or further escalation before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$2,111Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran military tensions over control of the Strait of Hormuz represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment on the islands' status. Kharg Island alone handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal, while Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi sit at key chokepoints affecting roughly 20% of global oil transit. Recent developments include U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and an oil tanker near Kharg in July 2026, following earlier March raids and a short-lived June memorandum that collapsed amid renewed attacks. Brent crude has traded with a persistent geopolitical premium, recently near $88 per barrel after peaking above $120, reflecting supply disruption risks and higher tanker insurance costs. No territorial seizures have occurred despite discussions of blockades or occupations, leaving outcomes dependent on ceasefire talks or further escalation before any resolution date.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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