Iranian forces have repeatedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters since the February 2026 outbreak of hostilities, including confirmed attacks on container ships and oil tankers in late June and July despite a June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum aimed at de-escalation. The IRGC has enforced transit permits, conducted drone and missile strikes on non-compliant ships, and issued repeated closure threats, while U.S. naval interdictions and airstrikes target Iranian maritime capabilities. These verified incidents, combined with ongoing mine-laying risks and reduced traffic, sustain trader focus on near-term dates for additional successful targeting. Diplomatic signals on reopening the waterway and U.S. escort operations represent key variables that could alter probabilities in coming weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran successfully targets shipping by...?
Iran successfully targets shipping by...?
NOWE
$16,440 Wol.
Aug 9, 2026
August 9
51%
August 16
59%
August 31
65%
September 30
81%
$16,440 Wol.
August 9
$5,007 Wol.
51%
August 16
$4,743 Wol.
59%
August 31
$3,540 Wol.
65%
September 30
$3,150 Wol.
81%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iranian forces have repeatedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters since the February 2026 outbreak of hostilities, including confirmed attacks on container ships and oil tankers in late June and July despite a June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum aimed at de-escalation. The IRGC has enforced transit permits, conducted drone and missile strikes on non-compliant ships, and issued repeated closure threats, while U.S. naval interdictions and airstrikes target Iranian maritime capabilities. These verified incidents, combined with ongoing mine-laying risks and reduced traffic, sustain trader focus on near-term dates for additional successful targeting. Diplomatic signals on reopening the waterway and U.S. escort operations represent key variables that could alter probabilities in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,440Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".Iranian forces have repeatedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters since the February 2026 outbreak of hostilities, including confirmed attacks on container ships and oil tankers in late June and July despite a June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum aimed at de-escalation. The IRGC has enforced transit permits, conducted drone and missile strikes on non-compliant ships, and issued repeated closure threats, while U.S. naval interdictions and airstrikes target Iranian maritime capabilities. These verified incidents, combined with ongoing mine-laying risks and reduced traffic, sustain trader focus on near-term dates for additional successful targeting. Diplomatic signals on reopening the waterway and U.S. escort operations represent key variables that could alter probabilities in coming weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation, and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to "No".
Wolumen
$16,440Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 3, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian forces have repeatedly struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters since the February 2026 outbreak of hostilities, including confirmed attacks on container ships and oil tankers in late June and July despite a June 17 U.S.-Iran memorandum aimed at de-escalation. The IRGC has enforced transit permits, conducted drone and missile strikes on non-compliant ships, and issued repeated closure threats, while U.S. naval interdictions and airstrikes target Iranian maritime capabilities. These verified incidents, combined with ongoing mine-laying risks and reduced traffic, sustain trader focus on near-term dates for additional successful targeting. Diplomatic signals on reopening the waterway and U.S. escort operations represent key variables that could alter probabilities in coming weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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